Tread Pro Day: Breaking Down the Data of Late-Round Draft Prospects

Finding talent in the later rounds for cheap is one of the best ways to acquire talent in pro ball. Below I break down a little more than dozen draft eligible prospects that could end up being good investments.

Drake Batcho, LHP, Florida International

Batcho topped out at 96 prior to the summer and hit 95 just five times. In his last bullpen his average four-seam was 96.1 mph. Six of his pitches were harder than his previous best, and his hardest hit pitch was 1.8 mph faster at 97.9 mph. Only 15 left-handed pitchers hit 97 this past spring, and just 3 hit 97 and averaged 18+ inches of VB. Even though Batcho struggled to throw strikes, he has one of the better fastball shapes in college baseball. Similarly to Griff McGarry when Batcho is on, he’s unhittable. The issue is that he’s not on very often, and getting into that pro ball environment could be what leads to it all clicking; like it did with McGarry. Here’s how the two compared in their college careers.

Batcho gets plus carry on his four-seam and throws from an extremely low release, he has one of the flatter approach angles you’ll see from an amateur pitcher. When it’s anywhere in the zone, and especially up, it’s a 70-grade pitch. But when you factor in the command, it’s likely only a 55. Whatever org can get him to that 70-grade upside is the one that’ll turn a late day three investment into a big leaguer. He’s improved his cutter that flashes plus with 6" of cut and lift at 87.9 mph. In college he threw his slider similar to his current cutter but 10.2 mph slower (no, that’s not a typo); which is the difference between a 40 and 60-grade shape. He’s also turned that same slider around into an 80.8 mph sweeper that breaks 8.6" to his glove side, it’s the least of his three pitches but it’s solid.

Once you get into the later rounds of the draft, it’s just lottery tickets. At least with somebody like Batcho you’re getting the upside of a high-end bullpen guy whereas the majority of guys getting picked at the end of day three are at best middle-relief arms. Even if Batcho only hits his 75th percentile career outcome he’s probably worth half-a-win in somebody’s bullpen.

Christian Winston, LHP, William Jessup (NAIA)

Winston was at San Diego State for the first four years in college before transferring to William Jessup, an NAIA school out of California. Since leaving San Diego State — where he had a career 4.71 FIP, and 4.38 ERA — he’s gained nearly 2 mph on his fastball as well flattened out his neutral approach angle by -0.4 degrees. In his latest bullpen, he touched 93.1 mph and averaged out at 91.9, all career-bests. His fastball is a 50-grade pitch with 15" of lift and a 1:30 spin direction from an extremely low release. Even though he’s throwing it at 1:30, it can still miss bats as the shape gets flat and tough to see out of his hand.

Winston took what was a slow slurve at 79.0 in college, and has started throwing it 5 mph harder while adding 0.5" of IVB and 3" of sweep, leading to 42" of drop and 11" of sweep at 84.0 mph on average. He already had feel for the pitch and college and threw it for 66% strikes, now he’s combined his feel for the pitch with a really good shape in turn creating what is a 60-grade CB. The most intriguing pitch in his arsenal is a mid-80s CH with 13" of fade and depth. He had issues pronating the pitch in college and was creating more of a splitter shape at 1:30 with too much gyro spin leading to an awkward shape that didn’t break late, now he’s optimizing the SSW traits of the pitch and creating a more optimal shape with late fade.

Winston just turned 23 years old and has at least average stuff. His CB/CH combination is worth a late investment and with the amount of development he made in the last year, he could probably add a slider, he’s a really good supinator already and it would add more margin for error with his velocity.

Derek Diamond, RHP, Ole Miss

Diamond came into the year as the top guy in the rotation for Ole Miss but struggled to miss bats due to generic stuff and got around even while having above-average command and control, this summer he made massive strides with his stuff and started throwing harder. Here’s the difference between his stuff at Ole Miss and his stuff this summer.

He’s made considerable gains with every pitch. The four-seam is a plus-pitch with heavy carry from a low release and if he can sit 90–96 for the majority of his outings he’s a starter long-term in my opinion. He’s started throwing his cutter with glove side break of late rather than arm side run while adding lift and velocity, he did back up one of his cutters in a recent pen but when he landed the shape/pitch it was an above-average pitch that he could use to get in on the hands on lefties.

His CB is the pitch that made the biggest strides shape-wise as he’s getting 5–8 more inches of drop while throwing it 1-2 mph harder in a short-stint, it’s an at least average pitch now and was below-average before. Diamond has already showed he can land pitches to both sides of the plate with feel for them, he just needed to miss bats. He might’ve fixed that problem this summer and flashes starter stuff with four average or better pitches. Diamond’s 5.12 FIP this spring isn’t representative of him anywhere and he’s worth a pick in the top-10 rounds.

Aljo Sujak, LHP, Hofstra

Sujak had a 5.54 FIP this season at Hofstra this season, but he didn’t have his new “four-seam” shape he’s added that will play better up in the zone and allow him to miss bats with the fastball up and create weak down with his sinker. He gets 14" of lift from his low release and so it plays up even if the short-form movement is a sinker. When did try to use his sinker up this spring, it got hit hard. Hitters batted .600 with a .867 slugging percentage and whiffed on just 9.7% of them, had his new-and-improved fastball been present at the time he would’ve fared better with the pitch.

Up to 90 in the spring, but only 89.2 on TrackMan, he hit 90.2 mph with both his four-seam and sinker and threw the four-seam at on average 89.6 mph, the sinker at 89.8 mph. As a left-hander in college with those shapes, he’d perform. His slider is also getting thrown harder with more lift and a similar gyro-heavy shape at 83.4 mph instead of 78.1, the old slider somehow performed in college with above-average command, so the new shape could’ve been that behind in the count pitch he needed to still a strike. He kills lift on the CH and gets 13" of fade with an 8–10 mph differential.

Matthew Bollenbacher, East Tennessee State

Bollenbacher had a 3.55 FIP and struck out 26.4% of batters while only walking 6.2% of them this spring. He’s been up to 95.1 mph and is getting 18.2" of lift on his four-seam from a somewhat low release (5.7 feet). He’s averaging his fastball out at 92.7 mph and was getting an added 350 rpm of spin, leading to some extra movement despite keeping its axis the same. He lives in the zone with fastball more than he should and didn’t elevate it much in the spring, but he was able to get a whiff on 20.3% of swings with the pitch.

His biggest improvement was turning what was a generic, upper-70s slider into a lift sweeper with 12" of sweep at 79.1 mph. He’s getting more lift with the pitch than before which helps him throw it hard while keeping the sweeping action. He threw the slider in the zone 44.1% of the time but couldn’t get chases with the pitch due to the shape. With his feel for the pitch and its new shape it’s a 50. He’s shown feel for a CH with fade and depth at 86 that flashes above-average at times.

Lucas Wepf, Louisiana-Monroe

Has a career 4.88 ERA in college with a 3.92 FIP. Had at least 45 command of his three pitches in the spring, and he’s added a sinker too. His four-seam is 93–95 in short-stints and gets up to 96.2, he’ll sit 90–95 in multi-inning outings. His four-seam has a lot of carry from a high release but with his velocity it’s an above-average pitch. His sinker is a hybrid between his change and four-seam at 90.7 mph with 16" of run, the change gets 18" of fade at 87.5 mph and got a lot of chases and whiffs in the spring with a lesser shape, it’s an above-average pitch.

He’s getting slight sweep (6.9" of HB) on his breaker and had as much as 12" of sweep with the pitch at 82–85. At just 79.8 mph with more depth and similar sweep he had a 39.3% whiff rate with the pitch. He’s had flashes and throws hard, could be an interesting late round flier that can beat you with three pitches and show a third.

Mason Vinyard, RHP, Western Kentucky

Vinyard added sinker to his fastball and gets 19" of run. This past spring, he had a 2.76 FIP and 29.9% whiff rate, and his stuff has only gotten better since. At the end of the spring he was throwing a gyro-slider at 83.1 on average with 6" of sweep. Now, it’s at 82.4 mph on average with 11" of sweep and lift; his feel for the pitch enabled it to pay up in the spring, combining that feel with this new shape is why it’s a plus-pitch.

His change has added fade, now with 22" of fade and a 8–10 mph drop-off in velocity. Had a 48.3% whiff rate with it in the spring and a 30.2% chase rate, he can land it on the shadow of the zone and he uses it mostly when ahead so he’s able to use it more as a whiff pitch rather than a strike stealing one when behind.

He’s looked good out of the bullpen at Western Kentucky in his last two springs. He’s posted a 3.28 ERA, 2.84 FIP, and 31.9% K-rate to a 6.9% BB-walk combined since ’20. In just ’22 alone, he ranks 14th in the country in whiff rate among pitchers with at minimum 30 innings pitched, a spot ahead of Hurston Waldrep, an All-American. His stuff has performed in college and has gotten better since the year ended, he’s intriguing as a relief option.

Drew McDaniel, RHP, Ole Miss

Has around average stuff and a five-pitch mix with a newly added cutter; has 3.4" of cut at 86.4 with some lift. It’s a slight play-off from his slider at 82.6 with 11.9" of sweep. The two flash plus, the cutter could be a weapon against lefties and looks like 55, the sweeper looks like his bat-missing shape, 60-grade pitch that he throws hard with a good amount of movement. He got up to 93.8 mph in the spring and was sitting 91–93 in a recent bullpen with some carry, it’s his only pitch that’s below-average, the shape itself is solid but at his velocity he needs more of an outlier release/movement trait.

His curveball was his most used secondary in the spring, he’s gotten it up 81.7 mph lately with a good amount of sweep and 40" of drop. Throwing it at 79–82 now, it was 74–78 in the spring. Has gone from a 50 to a 55. His feel for the change is fringy, the shape is good with a VB below 8" and 15" of fade. Has starter traits, potential for three above-average or better pitches and the SL is his pitch that could move him through the minors alongside that new cutter.

JC Coronado, Cisco (JC)

Young, junior-college arm with solid stuff and a limited track record. Has. Was up to 93.9 a recent bullpen, averaged his fastball out at 92.4 mph, has somewhat low release and it plays closer to a sinker with 15.8" of run and average lift. Fastball’s a 45, does have more velocity in the tank and has been higher with it previously. Fills up the zone with the pitch.

His slider is his best option, easy plus-pitch. Gets 15" of sweep with depth at 80.3 on average, gets up to 82.8 with it. As the fastball velocity trends up, the sweeper will, and if that pitch gets into that 84–85 range it could be a 70. He has a changeup, shape is solid. He throws it 9–11 mph off of the fastball ewith 16.4" of fade. Inconsistent locations, has shown he can land it below the zone in the chase window.

Anthony Boix, RHP, Barry College (D2)

Boix hasn’t performed at the division 2 level, but he throws gas and has feel for a nasty breaker which is probably more important although some semblance of a track record would be helpful. He has a career 8.1 K/9 and 7.4 BB/9 in 40 college innings. Threw a bullpen this month and topped out at 96.0 with his sinker, and 95.6 with his four-seam. Has above-average ride on his four-seam from a generic release. Threw it both them at 94–96 for the entire session. Four-seam is a 55, sinker is in the dead zone; 45-grade.

His breaker is a gyroball at 84–86 with < 5% spin efficiency at 9:00. It’s shape is gyro-heavy and falls off with zero lateral movement. 60-grade pitch. He kills more lift with his change and gets 15" of fade at 87–89, has above-average feel for it, lands them down/away from lefties. The FF/SL combination is intriguing and his CH is a good third, SI adds different look.

Luke Rettig, Lehigh

Had a 3.37 FIP and 2.40 ERA this spring as a starter, ate up 71.1 innings. Was up to 93.1 mph this month, he hadn’t thrown a pitch harder than 91 in the spring, now he’s sitting 90–93. He has a low release and gets lift on his heater so even with a direction in the dead zone he gets some ride on the pitch.

His best secondaries are the sweeper and cutter; the latter is a 55 with 16" of sweep and depth at 78–80, the cutter has 7" of cut with lift at 83–84. His cutter can look like a lift sweeper at times, but regardless the shape is a 55. His change is filthy, he threw it a ton in the spring; it’s locations were better than the shape, now both of them are good. It’s a 55-pitch with < 5" of lift and fade. Some SSW traits, could be a 60-pitch with a larger body of it performing.

He used his curve more in the spring than his slider, but it’s not as good, threw it for less whiffs, less chases, and less strikes but it’s still a 45. Gets 47" of drop and 14" of sweep at 75–77. Has starter stuff, and has solid velocity for a left-hander. He’s already shown his stuff plays in games and it’s gotten better since the season finished.

Roberto Coronado, Cisco (JC)

Limited track record like his brother, JC. But, he’s young with good stuff. His slider is a lift sweeper with 11.4" of glove side break and 7.6" of lift. He throws it up to 80.3 and between 78 and 80. Has shown he can land the pitch to his glove side in limited sample, pitch is above-average.

With his four-seamer, he has been into the mid-90s but was 90–92 when he threw this month. With his release/movement combination, the shape can be flat and when it’s elevated it’s good. He was filling up the zone with it, 50-grade pitch. His changeup when he glove strikes it or gets it below the zone is a plus-pitch as it has 18.5" of fade with your ideal fading action. Could be worth a flier in the later-rounds.

Michael Spinozzi, Miami (Ohio)

Spinozzi threw strikes in the spring but struggled to miss bats in the zone. He’s throwing his fastball up to 94 and around 90–93 in short-stints. His fastball shape is generic and from a low release, he gets below-average lift and cuts it. Can get up to 18–19" of lift but not consistent with it. It’s likely better off being turned into a sinker instead of this low efficiency gyro heater. 50-grade pitch.

Has four secondaries, all of them are at least average. His curveball has some drop with 13" of sweep at 76–77, the least of his five pitches. His slider is better than his cutter, but both are usable with bat-missing shapes. The SL is a 55, CT a 50. Gets 9" of sweep on his SL at 80–84, best pitch in his arsenal. Landed his changeups down and to arm side. Has added more fade to the shape and is getting more magnus force instead of this low efficiency pitch with too much gyro to get a heavy seam effect. 55-grade pitch.

Will Saxton, UCF

Saxton is 24-years-old, but he’s left-handed and has been up to 95 this spring with plus lift on his four-seam. He’s sitting in the low-90s with a shape that will avoid barrels. Above-average pitch. His breaker is around average, lot of sweep with drop at 75–78, didn’t have as much drop in the college season and has added a few inches of sweep too. Wasn’t able to get a lot of chases with the pitch in the spring which was part of the issue as he threw enough pitches in the zone, he didn’t have the stuff to steal strikes outside of the zone.

Changeup is average, zero feel for it but a good shape. Has upside as a reliever, not a starter. The FF/CB pair off each other and could get outs at the next level. He could be worth an un drafted free agent signing or a late round selection to save money.

Liam Doolan, Tennessee Wesleyan

Had a really good year, pitched 54.1 innings and struck out 74 with just 15 walks and a 2.15 ERA. Up to 95.2, sits 92–94 as a reliever in shorter outings. Has above-average VB on his four-seam with some run. Shape is somewhat generic but at his velocity it’s a 55.

His breaker is a gyroball at 80–82, low efficiency with depth and 2" of glove side break. Can bury the pitch down and off the plate for chases. Throws his changeup with depth but lacks fade and feel for the shape. He can get outs with his FB/SL and there’s room for development with a third pitch (the CH isn’t a real pitch in my opinion) and with how hard he throws he could add a second breaker.