Ranking The Top Prospects In Baseball

Mason McRae
56 min readSep 2, 2023

Last summer I went through the same exercise and ranked the best prospects in baseball here. Players that have debuted aren’t included which removes a good portion of player pool from making the list. While I spent the summer working for the Cubs, this list is my own and the opinions shared aren’t in any way tied to them. I tend to think from an analytical perspective but this is still subjective and far from a science.

Many players have debuted recently and were subsequently pulled from the list, those include: Noelvi Marte, Jasson Dominguez, Colton Cowser, Curtis Mead, Kyle Harrison, Marco Luciano, Masyn Winn, Sal Frelick, Luis Matos, and Ceddanne Rafaela. In terms of which teams have the most players on the list, that would be: Dodgers with 7. Orioles, Brewers, and Tigers all have 6. The Mets, Cubs, Twins, Padres, and Mariners all have 5. The only teams without a single player are the Royals and Angels.

I’ll reference slash line and WAR projections often. Since I’m also factoring in the likelihood of reaching that projection, certain players are ranked higher than other’s although their projections are similar. There’s no such thing as a “high floor” prospect in general, but relative to their peers they might fit that description.

Lastly, I’m ranking players off of median outcomes for the most part. The exception being abnormal risk, I’m looking at you pitching prospects. Certain players may only be worth ~2-wins but if they’re far more likely to consistently do that and hold up over a long time then they’ll be ranked higher than the player who can range anywhere from 1–4 wins. For example, Brooks Lee and Dalton Rushing have much lower 90th percentile outcomes than players well below them, but since they’re high probability bets to hit their valuable median outcomes they’re much higher.

1. Dylan Crews, CF, Nationals

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 11th in 2020 / 1st in 2023

The choices for player comps are very short when a player is this good at such a young age. The analytical thinking is on the passive side of projections, but there are plenty of signs point towards a Mike Trout type of profile here. Crews has an unconventional point-of-contact that is extremely steep and hinders his ability to get to all of his 60-grade raw power. It’s why the majority of his HRs were hit to straightaway CF, and why he led all of college baseball in hard-hits to the opposite field.

Crews has a steep AA which allows for him to hit his hard-hits in the air, but he’ll never fully tap into his power unless he gets the ball to his pull side more. It took Trout until he was 21-years-old for that to happen and it progressively got better until he peaked at 45 home runs when he was 27. The elite bat speed and plus decisions are why he’ll be a difference maker on a daily basis. He’s barely average in CF, like Trout, and he should stay there for the majority of his career. Crews’ median outcome isn’t Trout, but that doesn’t say much since Trout hit his upper percentile outcome. The reasonable but non-scientific expectation here is closer to ~4-wins annually. He was the best player in the ’23 draft from the day he pulled his name from the ’20 draft and that has yet to change.

2. James Wood, CF, Nationals

Previous Ranking: 3rd

Draft Ranking(s): 30th in 2021

A dynamic player with elite athleticism at his freakish stature. He could be the best player in baseball if it all works out, but he’s not without flaws. His decisions are average at best and he’s poor against offspeed pitches. His elite contact quality is the headliner and he’s either a 50 in CF or a 55 in RF. He doesn’t whiff at an alarming rate in the zone though his discipline has been the cause for heavy out-of-zone whiffs.

I don’t think he’ll stop developing any time soon and the athleticism will drive his production until the skills are done evolving. It’s a safe profile, he hits the ball hard in the air and will provide value in the field. His walk rates are trended down with the promotions to High-A and Double-A and they’re the one thing stopping him from being an Aaron Judge type. Judge hit his 99th percentile outcome, so I doubt Wood will end up being that dominant but it’s within his distribution of outcomes.

3. Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Caminero just turned 20-years-old but already has elite bat speed. He’s aggressive and chases a good bit because of it but he’s able to do damage on any pitch regardless of the location. He’s a top-of-the-order free swinger that could bat .300 once or twice and hit 30 HR at his best. I’m not sure where he’ll be doing all of this as the glove hasn’t been great at SS, but he should be able to handle 3B which is where he’s spent most of his time. The body is still filling out and he’s not slick with the glove so he’ll be reliant on the contact quality to drive his value. He’s my highest ranked non-premium defender, which tells you how good his contact quality is.

4. Wyatt Langford, LF, Rangers

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 2nd in 2023

Langford is off and running High-A. Pack-a-punched with perhaps the best offensive profile in the most recent draft, he does it all well but won’t be doing so at a premium position. He hammers fastballs, sees spin well, hits the ball very hard and does so in the air at a very high rate. He can do damage on his mishits thanks to 70-grade bat speed, and he makes good decisions with further improves the contact quality while driving up his OBP. He mostly played LF at Florida and that’s where he’ll end up. You could maybe throw him in RF since the speed is above-average but his arm is a 50 and he’s not instinctive enough to cover ground so you’re better off with him in LF where he’s above-average defender.

5. Jackson Holliday, SS, Orioles

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 9th in 2022

I’m not sure what to make of this profile, I was lower on him than the consensus in ’22 but he’s done everything well throughout a fast climb to Double-A. He doesn’t have plus power or plus decisions, or even elite bat-to-ball currently. He has a combination of them all and his bat-to-ball skills are a 60 though his barrel accuracy is what has made him so good. He’ll probably only hit ~15 home runs, but he should slash somewhere in the .285/.340/.430 range with gap power and average defense at SS.

My main concern with him earlier in the year was his defense, which looked shaky. He’s continued to get better there and looks to be average now and a potential 55 defender at the spot once he’s finished developing. Has outperformed his x-stats in every level despite a flat VBA. If you wanted to nitpick him, he’s yet to hit a HR against a LHP and his swing decisions take a massive drop-off against lefties, but he’s still producing at an above-average rate thanks to a .406 BABIP. Should end up being an above-average regular that plays short for a decade on a competitive team.

6. Jackson Chourio, CF, Brewers

Previous Ranking: 4th

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Still just 19-years-old and producing at Double-A, he’s never been the best player at his level since he’s always been so young. Making plenty of contact and hitting the ball hard, his discipline is atrocious and hasn’t shown any signs of improvement yet but he’s an average defender in CF who should put out ~25 HR annually. Has an extremely flat VBA, the constant low BABIPs aren’t a sign of poor luck. Because he’s so young, I’m buying the production but he’s one of the higher risk players and the range of outcomes is steep. He’s one of the few guys with a chance to develop into a perennial all-star, but the risk dropped him outside of my top-5.

7. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Cubs

Previous Ranking: 29th

Draft Ranking(s): 17th in 2020

A dynamic athlete that can could potentially have a 30/30 season if his power keeps trending in this direction. He’s lean at 5–11/185 lbs, but he’s twitchy with above-average bat speed, a loft-centric swing and a HH LA of 19°. He’s very clearly a plus plus runner capable of holding his own in CF with range and the aggressiveness to cover every inch in CF. He’ll play everyday because of the glove, but the bat won’t require a platoon. He hits lefty spin, struggles with offspeed regardless of side, and holds his own against fastballs. Walk rates are hiding his swing decisions a bit and they’ll take a hit when he gets to the show. I’d expect somewhere along the lines of .260/.310/.420 from him with a pair of gold glove awards in the grass.

8. Carson Williams, SS, Rays

Previous Ranking: 47th

Draft Ranking(s): 44th in 2021

Originally a two-way prospect out of California, it wasn’t until his showing at the WWBA in the Fall of ’22 that he began hitting full-time. Has a 70-grade arm with range to both sides and will play short for a long-time. Highly touted because of his hit tool as a prep, it’s his worst tool now and he’s more of a slugger as it stands. Likewise to PCA, he could post a 30/30 season, and I’d bet on it. Has 65-grade bat speed with a steep AA, he’ll regularly hit for power but it comes with the expense of swing-and-miss, which killed him in a limited Triple-A showing. He’s not done growing and should get to 65-grade raw power once he’s done, the chance of 30+ HR at SS is hard to pass on even if ends up striking out ~30% of the time.

9. Colson Montgomery, SS, White Sox

Previous Ranking: 18th

Draft Ranking(s): 35th in 2021

An above-average athlete with twitch and size. He’s always been capable of playing short though the expectation was that he’d shift over to third as he filled out. He might be able to follow the Corey Seager path and stick. I’ve got him pegged as an average SS with below-average range and speed but an above-average arm with natural glove skills. Already has plus bat-to-ball skills and walks a ton. He’ll provide offense with the bat and eye, though the bat will translate into the MLB better since his walks are a product of his approach rather the discipline. Had a back injury earlier in year but hasn’t lost a beat. I’d expect ~3-wins annually from him.

10. Cade Horton, RHS, Cubs

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 152nd in 2020 / 27th in 2022

Filled out medium frame, athletic but not the typical starter’s mold. Was a two-way prospect thanks to an injury in ’21. Flew up boards late in the Spring of ’22. Can spin it as good as anybody and does it often with his pair of breakers. He sits in the mid-90s for the duration of outings with the North Side special cut/carry heater, but it’s the SL and CB that get his best results.

Recently promoted to Double-A, has three plus pitches and can comfortably use them in all counts but relies on his FF when he’s behind and prefers to go to his SL. The SL is a 65 at 83–87 with plus sweep. His CB is a platoon neutral downer with mostly topspin. Loves to use CH against lefties, below-average feel for it and that’s why his walk rates sky rocket against LHB. The pitch itself can get a whiff here and there since the shape is good, but it’s his fourth pitch and doesn’t provide value on its own. Top of a rotation type of talent that can give you 3-4 wins annually.

11. Walker Jenkins, CF, Twins

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 3rd in 2023

Physical throughout with a mature build, has above-average bat speed from the left side and makes plenty of contact. Does his damage on fastballs right now and just stays alive on spin. Looks good in CF and plays the spot at a 55, though the frame could push him over to RF if the speed falls to a 50 (he’s a 55 now). The hope is plus power here with defensive value in the air and the bat-to-ball skills to hit for average as well. He’s passive but hasn’t shown much of an approach thus far. At 18-years-old and 6-foot-3, he’s far from a finished product and less advanced than Clark — who he’ll be connected too for quite some time — but should develop into the better player. I’ve got him as the third best player from this year’s draft.

12. Jackson Jobe, RHS, Tigers

Previous Ranking: 55th

Draft Ranking(s): 25th in 2021

Jobe came out of nowhere this year with a newly added cutter, improved changeup, and 2 extra ticks on the gun. His mid-90s heater has life but isn’t missing bats despite plus carry at 94–98, a sign of command perhaps. There’s a good argument to be made that every pitch in his arsenal is a 60-grade or better. His mid-80s CH plays off of the FF perfectly but the shape itself is filthy, late dive with fade to his arm side and command of it.

The only pitch performing better than his CH has been the low-90s CT that is closer to a gyro-SL with depth and quick glove side break. His mid-80s sweeper has been the bread-and-butter and might still be his best pitch at a 65 but the CT and CH have transcended the entire profile He’s pounding the zone and getting decent results after coming back from a long stint on the IL. His best years could be upwards of 5-wins but you’re expecting 3 or so annually.

13. Brooks Lee, SS, Twins

Previous Ranking: 50th

Draft Ranking(s): 3rd in 2022

Brooks was boringly good at Cal Poly and has only gotten better with each promotion in pro ball. A Draft Day fall thanks to medical concerns, very few people doubted his baseball skills as an amateur and he’s shown why. Knocking on the door and has looked good in Triple-A regardless of what the box scores say. Switch-hitter that hits better from the left side.

Has plus bat speed, elite barrel accuracy in spite of a steep swing path. Natural feel for barrel has gotten him to where he is. 45-grade raw power, approach and swing path will get all of his power to show up in games. Not a burner but makes the routine plays at short and will stick there until he moves over to third as he gets into his late-20s/early-30s. Doesn’t do anything great but everything is a 45 through 55. The main knock on him out of college was the discipline, it’s still below-average but it’s been better. Slightly above-average regular that will give you 2–3 wins.

14. Max Clark, CF, Tigers

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 4th in 2023

Plus athlete with a low stance, simple lefty stroke that’s violent. Swing works better at bottom of zone with slight uphill path, good with spin. Patient approach, some swing-and-miss in the profile which makes sense for somebody with 70-grade bat speed at 18-years-old. The hit tool will come around and he should end up with a plus hit/above-average power combo. Plus plus runner, more of a lock to stay in CF because of speed. As previously mentioned, there’s the argument for him over Jenkins. They’re in the same tier with Max being the better bet in CF and Walker likely hitting for more power, but both being slightly above-average regulars.

15. Ethan Salas, C, Padres

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Salas is just 17-years-old but was promoted to Double-A. He conquered Low-A in his debut season after signing for $5.6M and then looked as you’d expect for a teen in High-A. He’s extremely talented but something is off with the fast promotion. Whether that be San Diego trying to toy with opposing models prior to shipping him off this Winter for a big league piece or them trying to fast track him alongside their other promotions.

Like all preps, he doesn’t have much strength and at 6–1/175 lbs, there’s plenty of room for it. You essentially have to treat him like young-for-the-class prep, and if he were in the most recent draft you’d have to consider him with a top-5 pick. He’s already average behind the plate and could end up being a 60. He’s had his issues with hitting spin, but recognizing it hasn’t been an issue. I don’t think a slash line projection does you any good here, the bat-to-ball skills are good, his approach is solid and he’ll hit for average. I think he’ll develop into an above-average regular and wonder if he’d be better off in RF with the plus arm and above-average athleticism.

16. Kevin Alcantara, CF, Cubs

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

70-grade athleticism at 6–6 with above-average barrel accuracy is about as good as it gets in terms of upside. He’s a physical freak with plus, maybe 65-grade defense in CF. He loves to swing and can get himself intro trouble because of that but he puts his plus plus bat speed to work and rarely takes a pitch in the zone. Could put out 30 balls at his best and will give you 20–25 annually. Above-average hitter that can be an all-star in best years when his offense is running hot and complimenting his gold glove caliber glove. He’ll move over to RF when he debuts at Wrigley thanks to PCA but he’ll still be an above-average regular in the corner.

17. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Twins

Previous Ranking: 31st

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Plus athlete that has highish floor even with the hit tool concerns since he has elite swing decisions and 70-grade raw power with pull side loft. Steep swing, swing-and-miss in it but he’s also very patient and takes close strikes, so some of the high K-rates are the result of his approach. Him being a prenial all-star is within reach since he’s such a dynamic talent but if the strikeouts continue to hammer his production then he’ll start to be more of an average regular with inconsistent production. Fortunately the glove is great and he should be a solid big leaguer. Love the profile, lot of upside and floor is a second-division regular.

18. Spencer Jones, RF, Yankees

Previous Ranking: 70th

Draft Ranking(s): 12th in 2022

Elite athlete at his size, it’s about as good as it gets. The Yankees have him playing CF and he’s probably good enough to play there if need be, but i’ve got him as a plus defender in RF. His arm has always had strength and carry, and he can move well at his size thanks to his athleticism. Really special player that they’ve already promoted to Double-A.

Has a flat swing path but steep VBA, not hitting for a ton of power and part of that is his deep point-of-contact limiting pull side loft. Pitch recognition is rough, he won’t walk much because of it but his barrel accuracy is solid and he runs into balls at 110+ mph often. Bat-to-ball skills are better than average, punchout rates are because of his swing decisions. Aggressive approach, mashes breaking balls. Should anchor the middle of a lineup and play RF for a long time. So much fun to watch play.

19. Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles

Previous Ranking: 25th

Draft Ranking(s): 114th in 2020

Has bat speed and does his damage in the air, hitting for power but he’s a below-average runner with a flat VBA so he may run low BABIPs. Improving approach, starting to walk and get on-base more this year. Contact quality has always been loud, bat-to-ball skills are solid and he’s good enough to sick at 3B for the time being. Might need to play LF in later years as the speed depreciates. Above-average regular that can flat out hit.

20. Andrew Painter, RHS, Phillies

Previous Ranking: 30th

Draft Ranking(s): 50th in 2021

I’m not sure what to make of the injuries but he was dominant when healthy and the risk with every pitcher in today’s game is, unfortunately, health concerns. Vintage Justin Verlander four-seam from his glory days in the upper-90s with a tough angle for hitters to get on top of. Low-80s slider with sweeping action, tends to play into two seperate pitches with the firmer one at 82–86 having true sweeper shape and the upper-70s/low-80s one having sweep with depth as well. He flashed an upper-80s cutter and mid-80s slider this spring prior to the injury. Pounds the zone and has the best stuff of any starting pitcher in minors. If he comes back fully healthy he’s back to being an ace level arm with the profile to headline a competitive team’s rotation.

21. Dalton Rushing, C, Dodgers

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 32nd in 2022

Advanced approach, patient and rarely chases. Running high walk rates and limiting the punchouts. Plus bat speed, above-average raw power from left side, average or better tools across the board offensively with the hit tool being a touch better than the power but both are a 50. He doesn’t struggle in any portion of game and it’s littered with 50’s but he’s not a great defender. Barely average behind the dish with a below-average arm and above-average receiving skills.

The profile itself doesn’t have much risk but since some of his value comes from playing catcher, the ABS system coming in the future could limit some of his security. High probability big leaguer that will walk a ton, continue to get better. An average regular that’s best seasons will stand out from the more common 2-win seasons. He’s ranked higher than players with similar median outcomes since I’m more confident in him reaching it.

22. Daniel Espino, RHS, Guardians

Previous Ranking: 17th

Draft Ranking(s): 5th in 2019

Prospect fatigue is bound to kick in with Espino, he’s had his fair share of injuries and is currently on the shelf, but so is Painter. His four-seamer is the best fastball in the minors and has elite carry at 95–99. His SL has gotten tighter in the upper-80s and his big mid-70s CB is still a below-average pitch for him when ahead. Mostly FF/SL but an 80-grade heater and 55-grade SL can get him through lineups and you’re expecting one of his CB or CH to morph into an adequate third pitch to show. Arm talent alone he’s in the same tier as Painter and a touch better than Skenes.

23. Colt Keith, 3B, Tigers

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 61st in 2020

Has played some 2B and looked alright, but with an above-average arm he’s more likely to stick at 3B and move to 1B if the glove is an issue. He has the favorable bat left throw right combo and can do some damage with the stick while still limiting the punchouts and drawing a reasonable amount of walks. Should hit for above-average power and has a plus hit tool. Above-average regular that will eventually move off from 3B. I’m curious if he’s better off in LF or maybe even RF rather than the dirt.

24. Harry Ford, C, Mariners

Previous Ranking: 66th

Draft Ranking(s): 7th in 2021

I had always hopped they’d try him out in the outfield, and they did, but it was for an inning. He’s a plus athlete that can run but it’ll trend down the longer he sticks behind the plate. He’s an above-average catcher, so it’s not like he needs to move off, it’s more of a “this could be fun” type of deal. Has one of the steepest swing paths in the minors and has no issues getting all of his 45-grade raw power to play. He could hit 30+ HR with his loft-centric approach and natural feel for lifting balls to his pull side. His approach might be the best part of his game, walks a ton, smart hitter against secondaries and very rarely expands the zone. Really exciting player that could peak at ~5-wins, above-average regular.

25. Paul Skenes, RHS, Pirates

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 5th in 2023

Skenes has taken Bobby Miller’s place in having the worst possible 99+ mph heater shape, fortunately that’s still a 55-grade without tweaks and I’d expect him to turn it into a plus shape with tailing action and a sinker profile. His CH flashed plus at the end of the season when he wasn’t facing guys with 30 bat speed, his sliders are less than ideal for a guy sitting 98–100. He started out with a mid-80s sweeper with 15" of lateral, then it ended losing some of the sweep and stayed in the 84–89 range. He’s been throwing a low-80s sweeper since debuting and an upper-80s cutter. Neither is remarkable, but he has 70-grade control and above-average command.

With average player development he’ll end up as a #2 starter. I’ve got the sinker ending up as a 65-grade pitch, the CT and SL as 55’s and his CH as a 60. People can mock the critics of his heater shape but Bobby Miller’s four-seam gets used about as optimal as one’s fastball could be and it still doesn’t miss bats or get good results. Big league hitters are too good nowadays and he’ll have to develop the shapes. The control/command and upper-90s velo will give him every chance to hold his own at the top of a Pirates rotation.

26. Jeferson Quero, C, Brewers

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Above-average regular with above-average arm and glove behind the plate, below-average runner already. Plenty of 55’s across the board but below-average plate discipline despite his average walk rates. Very aggressive and that’ll lead to less walks at higher levels where the stuff is much better. Great bat-to-ball skills and enough juice to hit for some power. Nothing special but a solid all-around player that has performed in Double-A.

27. Chase Hampton, RHS, Yankees

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 181st in 2020 / 136th in 2022

The Yankees player development is under siege on social media and yet here lies a pitching prospect they developed from within and every org in baseball would gladly give up and arm-and-leg for. Hampton took the whirly bird route to finish off the cutter/sweeper combo that is littered throughout New York’s farm. He already had the former pitch they just revamped it into a better one that he can command in any count and spot up with late cutting life and occasional ride at 86–91.

His newly added sweeper ranges from the low-to-mid-80s and has a sharp sweeping action, a plus pitch. His big CB has your traditional 12/6 shape and plays perfectly off of his FF that has 20" of carry. He can land either of those four pitches for strikes, whiffs or chases. He’ll even mix in an upper-80s CH that takes off from LHB. He’s not flamethrower but he’s been developed into a solid #2 starter that give you ~3-wins annually.

28. Tink Hence, RHS, Cardinals

Previous Ranking: 39th

Draft Ranking(s): 49th in 2020

Tink’s fastball has trended south with less carry in ’23 than he got in ’22. It’s still an above-average pitch in the mid-90s that gets into the upper-90s often. His CB has molded into two non-distinct shapes, the better being the depthy one in low-80s, the other being a slurve of sorts in 82–87 range. He had more of a sweeping curve in ’22 but it’s been turned into the low-80s breaker. His CH is filthy when in the zone against LHB but he’s mostly reliant on his FF to get him through lineups. He’s not yet ready and the control is a grade lower now than it was a few months ago. He’s not done developing and has plus athleticism with mobility. There’s still room for him to develop into a #2 starter but he’s more than likely a #3.

29. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Diamondbacks

Previous Ranking: 76th

Draft Ranking(s): 13th in 2021

Struggled in the field last year but has looked good this year and will stick at SS with an above-average glove that could continue to develop and end up as a 60. Has always started off slow after promotions and picks up steam later on, but he’s off and running and Triple-A. Steep swing path but solid bat-to-ball skills that allow for him to limit the punchouts. His swing decisions are good and he walks a lot. Below-average bat speed and raw power, could still hit 20+ HR because of the swing path and feel for barrel.

30. Mick Abel, RHS, Phillies

Previous Ranking: 32nd

Draft Ranking(s): 9th in 2020

Has the size and stuff of a #3 but can’t land either of his secondaries for strikes at reasonable rate. Has gained a tick in velo and sits around 96 from a low release, but even still he’s right in the dead zone and doesn’t get great results with his heater. It’s still a plus pitch, commands it all over and the shape is solid. I’d prefer his ’22 heater that got more whiffs and strikes taken at 95. Has a mid-80s sweeper that gets hit and a vicious low-80s sweeping curve that performs much better. CH as gone from a below-average pitch in ’21 to an above-average pitch at times in ’22 back to a below-average pitch. The walks have always been his issue but more specifically it’s his inability to land the secondaries. The stuff is too good and worst case scenario you’re getting 35-grade control, he’s a #3 starter.

31. Jackson Merrill, SS, Padres

Previous Ranking: 94th

Draft Ranking(s): 110th in 2021

Merrill’s big and has some physicality, but there’s still room for more and he’ll continue to add strength. Already has average bat speed and with his gorgeous swing path I’m expecting some power at SS. He’s played the spot since debuting and hasn’t batted an eye, despite the size he’s a solid athlete with the glove skills and arm to stay. His best ability is the bat-to-ball, which is easily plus and probably a 65-grade. Not an exciting dynamic player but he’s an above-average regular in his best years.

32. Evan Carter, CF, Rangers

Previous Ranking: 37th

Draft Ranking(s): Not Ranked

Carter hasn’t handled LHP very well in his pro career, he doesn’t get the ball in the air as much and walks less against them but he should be good enough to play everyday. A fringy defender in CF, you could play him there but he’ll be average at best. Plus-runner that’s aggressive but not great on the basepaths. Below-average bat speed, above-average bat-to-ball skills and consistently hits the ball at optimal LAs which makes up for fringy EVs. High probability chance of ending up as an average regular, might get to 20+ HR in a season once or twice but will majority value comes from surpluses in AVG and OBP, some gap power.

33. Chase Davis, RF, Cardinals

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 164th in 2020 / 6th in 2023

Chase hasn’t been great in his Low-A showing, but the swing decisions are as good as advertised and he’s not whiffing very much. From the surface his strikeouts seem concerning, but the vast majority of them have been called strikes, nearly half of them on balls out of the zone. His contact quality has taken a step down from what it was, like every Arizona hitter over the last few years, but it’s still above-average power from the left side. What’s been the biggest development is his defense, he’s looked good in CF and might be an average defender there. It’s more likely he ends up in RF with his plus arm and above-average glove. I’ve got him as an above-average regular that slashes .250/.360/.450.

34. Zach Dezenzo, 3B, Astros

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 94th in 2022

Slugger that hits the ball hard at optimal angles and usually in the air. Has sneaky good swing decisions, still another gear to unlock here when he learns to be a touch less aggressive to walk more. Quickly got to Double-A after conquering High-A this year and treading water at Low-A in his debut season. Has 65-grade raw power and works below pitches with an extreme VBA and neutral AA. They’ve cut down his whiffs because of a flatter swing path, but he’ll still swing through pitches.

He’s also doing the unthinkable and hitting elevated heaters which I never though he’d be able to do with his path. Has shown flashes of being fine at 3B but the product might not be good enough. I’d expect a team to let him start there, might need to move over to 2B or into LF. There’s always the chance he ends up being a Patrick Wisdom type and second-division regular but I’m bullish on the profile and think his bat-to-ball is better.

35. Jacob Misiorowski, RHS, Brewers

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 59th in 2022

Assuming full health, the floor here is a top-20 reliever in baseball. Miz could hold down the top spot in a competitive rotation when it’s all said and done, the stuff is dominant. His upper-90s heater has carry and life and flashes plus, his low-90s slider misses bats in the zone but has an inconsistent shape that has hindered his ability to command it.

His mid-80s hammer has quick drop with above-average sweep and gets taken for a lot of strikes because of how good it is. He has just two pitches against LHB and is having some issues with them. His CH exists but that’s about it, he hasn’t landed it for strikes. The potential solution is adding a second fastball, which makes sense given his release/velo, to help with LHB. He’s probably a #3 starter but he could end up in a 1–2 inning relief role where he’s still worth 1.5+ wins. Lot of upside and risk here.

36. Jace Jung, 2B, Tigers

Previous Ranking: 59th

Draft Ranking(s): 5th in 2022

Not an exciting player but a good one, was a model darling at Texas Tech like his brother and he’s done nothing but produce since signing. Some of the best barrel accuracy in the minors. Always hitting the ball hard but more importantly at optimal LAs, very rarely is he wasting his hard-hits and hitting them on the ground. Steep swing with some swing-and-miss but nothing alarming. Above-average defender at 2B, approach and decisions are good enough. Very consistent everyday player, .260/.320/.460 potential at a non-offensive position.

37. Tommy Troy, 2B, Diamondbacks

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 92nd in 2020 / 7th in 2023

A Brian Dozier type at 2B, an undersized infielder who hits for power and handles his own in the field. Makes contact way out front, can manipulate barrel easily, will drop it and work below pitches down/in, flattens out at the top. Has a knack for barreling up balls and creating flush contact which allows him to tap into all of his above-average raw power. Should get you ~25 or so HR annually. Will walk at reasonable rates, doesn’t throw away at-bats and isn’t sacrificing contact for power. Has issues with offspeed since he’s making his decisions so early, but breakers haven’t been a concern.

Reverse splits because of offspeed issues. Above-average defender at 2B that is starting his career pro career at short. Rarely played the spot at Stanford but spent time there in the summer. He doesn’t have to play 2B on a daily basis, can move over to 3B where he’s a 50, LF is also an option. Above-average regular that could be ready by the tail end of 2024.

38. Nick Frasso, RHS, Dodgers

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 238th in 2020

Frasso’s release height is fairly generic but he has one of the more extreme release side’s and gets much more carry on his FF than expected relative to his slot. He’s dominant against RHB because of his angle but also ability to land his FB in on RHB while landing his above-average SL and occasionally mixing in a right-on-right CH as well. Against LHB, his FF is closer to average than the 70-grade pitch it is against RHB, but his SL is still above-average and the CH performs well.

His plus plus control will land him comfortably in a #3 role. He had a mid-70s CB in ’21 that I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing back to help with LHB. He doesn’t need a fourth pitch to land for strikes, just something he can get chases with to LHB. He’s nearly 24-years-old and has been knocking on the door for awhile but always seems to have his worst start just before he gets the call. Elite athlete, if he gets back to being 94–98 like he was last year, his stuff could really take off.

39. Noah Schultz, LHS, White Sox

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 46th in 2022

Monstrous lefty with size, throwing very few innings but dominating. Have yet to see his stuff and command later in outings, with the body and how it holds up I think he’ll hold his velo. He’s sitting in the mid-90s with a sinker that has plenty of run from a L3Q slot. Already commands it to his arm side well, likely ends up being a command-driven 60 with solid movement but in the mid-90s from the left side.

His SL is gorgeous, big sweeping action in low-80s that he can control but not glove strike. He has a CH, hasn’t used it much. Will need to add a smaller breaker to help with RHB. Some sort of cutter/slider hybrid. Only a two-pitch guy right now. Ability to pound the zone with both has been the separator in Low-A. Both of them project as 60’s and I think he could pitch out of a bullpen today but the size, projection and velo from the left side will hold down the #3 spot in a rotation by the end of ’25.

40. Ricky Tiedemann, LHS, Blue Jays

Previous Ranking: 63rd

Draft Ranking(s): 143rd in 2020 / 331st in 2021

Tiedemann’s slider is breaking less but it’s up 2 mph and has that baby sweeper shape in the low-80s. His mid-90s heater is deceptive with sink and run from his L3Q slot. His CH will miss bats and get chases but it’s a touch worse this year. He’s a LHP with feel for spin and better stuff against RHB since he can backfoot the slider. I’ve got him as an above-average starter worth between 2 to 3 wins annually. Still just 21-years-old and already good.

41. Enrique Bradfield Jr, CF, Orioles

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 141st in 2020 / 8th in 2023

Really exciting profile and a heck of a value for Baltimore. He could play CF and pinch run in the MLB today. He’s a game changing level of talent in the outfield that can track any ball down with his 80-grade speed. Has a muscular build but not strong, the shoulders are light, and he’s built like a college track star. Has slightly below-average bat speed right now with unfavorable swing plane that has ran low BABIPs for most of college career despite the blazing speed. Has a great approach, makes good decisions, his bat-to-ball skills and the discipline will help him walk while limiting the punchouts. Would project him to be somewhere in the .275/.350/.350 range. Should be one of the best defensive players in the game annually with good enough offensive production to give you 3–4 wins annually.

42. Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Catcher with pop, improving approach, left-handed impact with a strong medium frame. Plus bat speed with average bat-to-ball. Just 19-years-old and has above-average raw power. High upside, above-average catcher with arm strength. Will be interesting to see how he develops, wonder if they give him reps in the corner outfield or expect him to split reps with Adley when he’s finally ready. If the recent trend of improved discipline continues he’ll be an above-average regular worth ~3-wins.

43. Ronny Mauricio, SS, Mets

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Ronny’s raw power jumped into the 70+ grade range this year and with that came much better contact quality. He’s always had decent bat-to-ball skills but a rough batter’s eye has limited the walks. He hits the ball hard but with his lackluster pitch recognition he’s usually guessing and that comes with ugly swings at times. He’s a fun player, will stick at short because of a plus arm and good enough range. Has some size, 30+ HR upside. Switch-hitting everyday type with slightly above-average production.

44. David Festa, RHS, Twins

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): Not Ranked

Massive athlete with high waist and square shoulders. Still some projection left and room to add in his slender build. Short arm with speed and strength. SL is his primary, firm upper-80s pitch with depth and above-average command. His CH will end up as a 55. Throws it nearly 10 mph off of his heater with some fade from a vertical arm angle that can get sink naturally. His fastball has ride and is consistently around 96 in that 95–97 range. His body can hold it over a full outing although they’ve been safe with him, has been sheltered recently in his outings but there doesn’t seem to be a medical concern. Three 50+ pitches to both RHB and LHB, average command. Looking like a #3 starter. Hasn’t flashed 55+ control ever, some relief risk in the lack of track record with throwing strikes. Was recently promoted to Triple-A and will have a shot to start ’24 with the Twins.

45. Brady House, 3B, Nationals

Previous Ranking: 73rd

Draft Ranking(s): 3rd in 2021

A great example of not overreacting when plus plus athletes struggle out of the gate, House dealt with swing issues and injuries that held him back in his first full pro season. Fully healthy and finally getting steepness in his swing, he’s made the climb to Double-A and looks like an everyday 3B. Made the move over to 3B after an awful season at short, has the arm strength and range but lacks the arm accuracy and glove skills to play there. Average at 3B but with his athleticism I’d expect him to develop into a 55 there. Plus raw power with 70-grade bat speed, runs a high BABIP with flat VBA due to heavy hard-hit rate on GB/LD. Discipline is rough and he chases elevated heaters often, has the bat-to-ball skills to drive production through a high BABIP, gap power, and ~20 HR.

46. Jared Jones, RHS, Pirates

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 24th in 2020

His slider in the upper-80s/low-90s is lethal, his heater in the mid-90s has life and the CB/CH’s are complimentary pitches that he can get chases with when ahead. His SL is an easy 60, the heater a 55, he’s always thrown just enough strikes to stick in a starter role but never enough to push himself into that ace or #2 talk. Plus athlete with medium frame, should hold down a #3 role alongside Skenes, Solometo and Harrington for Pittsburgh.

47. Denzel Clarke, CF, Athletics

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 354th in 2021

Clarke isn’t on the same level as Alcantara and Jones since he struggles in two of the major offensive skills (contact quality, bat-to-ball, swing decisions), whereas they’re only lacking in one of them. He makes up for it with plus raw power and a loft-centric approach, his point-of-contact being well out front is what allows him to hit for power since his swing is on a flat slope. Oddly enough, despite the flat swing, he whiffs a good bit, part of that might be him making decisions so early to get to his power and so he’s swinging at poor pitches which are tougher to square up. He’s a plus defender in CF and profiles as a slightly above-average regular. Has been injured often in pro ball, including right now as I’m typing this.

48. Elijah Green, CF, Nationals

Previous Ranking: 7th

Draft Ranking(s): 1st in 2022

If it wasn’t obvious already, I’ll always bet on athleticism. I’m not ready to give up on an this elite athlete just yet, especially since he’s shown solid swing decisions. He’s one of the few players on this list capable of producing a 7+ win season. It’s unlikely of course, but he has the ingredients to do it. He has elite bat speed, 80-grade raw power, and is just 19-years-old. He’s a 70-grade runner with fringy routes but still yet a plus glove and arm in CF. I’m not sure if his barrel accuracy, or lack thereof, will allow him to fully tap into the raw power but he still could hit 30 HR and strike out 200 times on a regular basis. He might have the worst bat-to-ball skills in the minor leagues, it’s rough, but every other tool is a 60 or better. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, he’s Byron Buxton.

49. Walker Martin, SS, Giants

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 9th in 2023

Gunnar Henderson profile, size and athleticism at short. Wasn’t challanged much this spring out in Colorado but in the Fall he hit the ball well against the best of his peers and he should end up developing into a solid above-average regular that can hit for power. Simple swing without and hitches, feel for barrel, mostly average or better tools across the board and he can run. Once he fills out the already muscular frame he’ll have above-average raw power with plus bat speed. Signability dropped him out of the first but he signed for first round money.

50. Lazaro Montes, RF, Mariners

Previous Ranking: 75th

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Teenager with physicality and juice from the left side. Already has plus raw power and swing capable of doing pull side damage. Solid pitch recognition but aggressive and chases offspeed down and/or away as well as fastballs up. His rookie ball production has translated into his full-season debut this year, which isn’t always the case but it’s nice to see an electric hitter finally make the jump so fast. He could give you 5+ wins at his best and might be worth ~3-wins annually if he continues to develop but he’s got a ways to go and comes with his fair share of risk.

51. Brock Wilken, 3B, Brewers

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 10th in 2023

Physical with strength throughout, has plus plus bat speed and does damage on his mishits. Has a flat VBA and average AA but connects with ball well out front which is why he’s hitting for power in spite of the path. Will hit for average because bat-to-ball skills seem to be translating into next level at a reasonable rate and his approach/swing path are advanced. Being able to walk as much as he does while having to be early to contact in order for power to play shows how good his decision-making is. 65-grade decisions. Somewhat similar profile to Locklear although he’s going to stick at 3B which makes him much more valuable and safer. Above-average regular that should slash .270/.350/.480 with ~30 HR at 3B.

52. Reggie Crawford, LHS, Giants

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 64th in 2022

Made his long awaited debut earlier this year after coming back from injury, but he’s out with an oblique strain now. His mid-90s heater is in the dead zone but from a L3Q that creates flat angle. He pounds the zone with it but sprays it, fortunately the shape is good enough to play regardless of its spot. He added an upper-80s SL earlier this year but hasn’t touched it since. His CB at 82–85 plays like a power-slurve and gets the best results of any pitch he has. CH flashes 50’s, chance for four average or better pitches if he can continue developing that SL. Mostly FF/CB for now and both are future 60’s. Has barely thrown but stuff is real. Slightly above-average starter in a #3 role with some relief risk present.

53. Drew Gilbert, RF, Mets

Previous Ranking: 91st

Draft Ranking(s): 14th in 2022

Doesn’t have a standout tool, but he’s solid in most parts of the game. I think he’s a RF, don’t trust him in CF, routes are aggressive but not always right. Can be solid in RF. Flat swing path that will allow him to hit at an above-average clip with his bat-to-ball skills and approach. Played through an injury this year and his offensive production took a nosedive. I’m not sure if he’ll ever hit for better than 55-grade power because of the swing, but I think he can still put 20–25 out a year. Should get 3–4 wins in his best years and slightly above-average production for the majority of them.

54. Nick Yorke, 2B, Red Sox

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 159th in 2020

The plot twist of 2020’s first round came onto the scene quick, then scuffled a bit in ’22, and he’s back again in ’23 producing offensively. Might be a plus defender at 2B, has looked great this year and very rarely made any errors in the past. 70-grade bat speed, fringy barrel accuracy has limited him from getting to his raw power very often. If he can start doing more damage on fastballs then there’s no reason for him not be worth ~3-wins annually. Slightly above-average regular for now.

55. Brice Matthews, SS, Astros

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 11th in 2023

Athletic and solid up-the-middle defender with speed and arm strength. Average defender at short that will stay there long-term. Good runner, advanced approach and high walk rates. Was better against secondaries than fastballs in college, hammering breaking balls in pro showing but late to fastballs. 65-grade bat speed so it’s not because he can’t catch up, barrel timing seems to be later with steeper point-of-contact. Bat-to-ball skills are lacking and he’ll run high strikeout rates but ability to hit the ball in the air with authority drives his production. Power-hitting SS with mid-20 HR power. Could slash .230/.350/.380 in above-average regular role.

56. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox

Previous Ranking: 15th

Draft Ranking(s): 5th in 2021

It’s been quite the fall this year for Marcelo. After outpeforming his x-stats for two years straight across Low-A and High-A, he’s started to regress to the mean. Only average bat speed and a very flat VBA, I’d expect him to continue running low BABIPs until his swing path changes or he gains bat speed. Average raw power, but has shown better than average in the past. He’s an average SS and will move off from the spot into his late-20s but he’s fine at the spot for now. Below-average athleticism and more reliant on skills, the swing decisions have killed him in Double-A. He’s still hitting the ball well and mostly in the air. Still an average regular at least.

57. Hurston Waldrep, RHS, Braves

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 12th in 2023

Waldrep’s atrocious pitch usage at Florida this spring might’ve been for the better. Landing in one of the best orgs in baseball on the development will raise his chances of reaching the upper percentile of a wide distribution of outcomes. Those outcomes range from a middle relief type worth 1/2 win to an ace that gives you ~4-wins annually. He’s closer to Bobby Miller than he is Jack Leiter (in terms of college starters lacking control) and thanks to multiple plus (or better) secondaries he should have the stuff and arsenal depth to power through an order. At Florida this spring, he threw 72% fastballs when he was behind, and 23% when he was behind. A near impossible feat or so you’d think, he threw three of his pitches for 62% or more strikes, but managed to be as predictable as the Maple Leafs in the spring. The highest being the 80-grade splitter at 67%. Yes, it’s that good.

Thankfully, as previously mentioned, the Braves are smart. They have him throwing 51% fastballs when behind and 44% in 2–0, 2–1, 3–1, and 3–2 counts, his splitter has looked like the best pitch from the draft and the SL has been the same old mid-80s power pitch. Atlanta’s not big on their arms throwing CBs, so he’s put his CB on the shelf but it was his worst pitch on a strike basis and the SP can look like a sharp downer breaker at times, almost like a Karinchak banger with arm side break but sharp drop. If I need 18 outs in a big league game today, and my choices are between Waldrep or Skenes. I’d give the ball to Waldrep. His secondaries are better, the fastball shape isn’t bad since he can cut it a good bit, and more importantly he’s throwing strikes at a reasonable clip since he’s far less predictable. I’m obviously bullish but this is top-of-the-rotation talent.

58. River Ryan, RHS, Dodgers

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): Not Ranked

An incredible story, the Dodgers dealt Matt Beaty for Ryan in ’21 before he even threw a pitch in pro ball. A two-way prospect out of UNC Pembroke, he started out hitting only in pro ball before Los Angeles told him he wouldn’t touch a bat again. Literally, his stuff doesn’t get hit. He’s not big, but he’s athletic and has a whippy arm and is already throwing five pitches, though two of them are fairly similar in his CT and SL.

The two of them can blend together at times but his CT has 2 mph on the SL and gets slightly less drop whereas the SL falls off the table at 86–90. His CT has been his best pitch at times this year and his command of the SL/CT is above-average. He’ll drop in the occasional banger at 81–85 and his CH has depth with occasional late tumble. He’s already 25-years-old depsite debuting on the mound last year, should be up next season and give you ~2-wins annually as a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm.

59. Termarr Johnson, 2B, Pirates

Previous Ranking: 65th

Draft Ranking(s): 7th in 2022

There’s nothing more eyewash than a prep hit tool, case in point here. Termarr has plus plus swing decisions and has always been on the advanced side with regards to his approach but he swings through plenty of pitches, especially non-heaters. He’s just 19-years-old still, incredible pull side loft with a nice swing that has above-average bat speed. He’s an alright defender at 2B, with his frame he’s somewhat stiff athletically. Offense over defense, not a safe profile but his approach is keeping the strikeouts down.

60. Roman Anthony, CF, Red Sox

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 53rd in 2022

What a start it’s been for Roman, but there’s one glaring issue seemingly overlooked by the public with him: he’s been awful against LHP. The positive is that it’s not a big sample, the negative is that since it’s a small sample his surface numbers look really good and he might be getting overvalued a touch. He struggles with LH fastballs, chases more often, and hasn’t hit the ball very hard against them either.

He’s big and has above-average raw with plus raw coming once he fills out. Above-average bat speed, solid bat-to-ball skills, hits the ball at optimal LAs and makes good decisions in a patient approach that draws walks. We’ll see if he can play CF once the body fills out, I’ve got him as an average defender there, non-zero chance he moves to RF, above-average arm and still adds value in the corner. He hammers RHP and with his defense, he’d be able to handle the strong side of a platoon over 80–100 games assuming the struggles against LHP are real. If he can get to an 85–90 wRC+ against LHP than he’ll probably be good enough to start everyday. Average, maybe slightly above-average regular. Still just 19-years-old and can easily exceed my projections with development.

61. Cole Young, 2B, Mariners

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 16th in 2022

I’m not sure if Cole will have the arm to stay at SS, but he has the speed and athleticism to do so. He’s an above-average runner with twitch and an athletic build. Really good hitting profile, sneaky lefty pop, HRs should fall in the mid teens on a consistent basis. Much better against RHP, capable of playing up-the-middle everyday with average offensive production and a plus glove at 2B. I’m projecting a move to 2B but there’s still the chance he can play SS long-term with added strength.

62. Matt Shaw, 2B, Cubs

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 13th in 2023

Played SS in college but will make the move over to 2B, lacking the speed and range but also has a fringy arm for the spot. Power-hitting 2B that comes with the added bonus of winning the MVP on the Cape, which matters even more in today’s college environment. He’ll hit ~25 or so HR on a consistent basis and hit for average. Has plus raw power and makes plenty of contact so I’d expect a relatively high average, at least plus. Plate discipline is rough and he’s aggressive but in a good way: hunting heaters and selective with secondaries. Probably a .280/.320/.460 type with above-average defense.

63. Sebastian Walcott, 3B, Rangers

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Big and already strong, he’s hitting the ball well in the ACL but his swing decisions are a mess. He’s ultra aggressive and he strikes out a lot because of it but his bat-to-ball skills are fine and I don’t think he’ll swing-and-miss in the future. Just 17-years-old and already looks like he could hit 30+ HR once or twice. You can’t really throw a role on this type of player right now, he should end up at 3B barring an unexpected development at SS. Has the power/eye to be a productive bat in the middle of an order one day.

64. Tyler Locklear, 1B, Mariners

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 26th in 2022

The best hitter in the ’22 draft — he is and always was better than Jacob Berry — is off and running in pro ball. A complete package offensively with the approach, discipline, bat speed, and bat-to-ball skills to put up Anthony Rizzo type of production at 1B. He’s not a bad defender, but his glove skills are lacking, solid athleticism should let him be around average at 1B. In his best years, I think he might be able to reach 5-wins potentially. Since he’s losing you value in the field, he’ll give you ~2-wins on a more regular basis but in his prime and at his best, he’s going to anchor the top of a lineup and hit 30+ HR while hitting .280 and getting on-base often. Doesn’t have a high floor profile because of defense but his offensive profile is flawless.

65. Aidan Miller, 3B, Phillies

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 14th in 2023

Gorgeous swing, lift and bat tilt with plus bat speed. Has a plus hit tool, getting easy power with the positive AA and bat speed. Has 25+ HR potential with 55-grade power. Hasn’t produced a lot of power in games despite a filled up medium frame, but I’m expecting it to come around.

His decisions aren’t anything other than average. He can hit his mishits hard and looks like the type of player capable of outperforming his x-stats stats due to the flush contact quality he creates, Average athlete, 70-grade arm, up to 95 on the mound. Playing SS to start pro career and could stick but I’ve got him at 3B where’s a 60 glove.

66. Adael Amador, 2B, Rockies

Previous Ranking: 49th

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Amador lacks the two most predictive traits: premium defense and contact quality. So that’s a lot of pressure on consistent barrel accuracy and decision making. He makes solid decisions, better than his ’23 walk rates would suggest. And his bat-to-balls are well above-average to the tune of low whiff rates. He can hit any pitch type, handle both sides of a platoon since he’s a switchy. He’s been rough at SS and the arm is better than his range so he could move over to 3B. Not much upside here but should be a solid regular with consistency.

67. Marco Raya, RHS, Twins

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 43rd in 2020

The Twins have been risk-averse with Raya and aren’t letting him go long in games. He’s undersized with plus plus athleticism and had pounded the zone prior to his Double-A showing but he’s struggled with the walks. Outside of the two rough looks at the end of July and beginning of August he’s been fine. He doesn’t land his FF up so despite above-average carry in the mid-90s from his low release, he doesn’t get good results with it. His power-sweeper at 85 is unhittable for RHB, the CB in low-80s is sharp but feel for it is lacking. CH comes out good, tough to LHB and missing bats with it. His SL is a 65-grade, FF a plus pitch once he hones it down. CB and CH will be 50’s and either could finish as a 55 with better command. Probably still a #3 starter though I’m less confident in that than others.

68. Jett Williams, 2B, Mets

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 21st in 2022

I’m not sure how, but Jett is hitting for power this year. He’s undersized and a good athlete but his swing path is flat, his point-of-contact is neutral and he only has 45-grade bat speed. Every now and then he runs into a pitch and sneaks one over the LF wall. I’m not sure how sustainable he is but when he does hit the ball hard, it’s almost always in the air. Elite batter’s eye and pitch recognition, doesn’t get beat often rarely fooled. Arm strength and accuracy aren’t good enough today to play SS. Has room to add strength in his upper body, glove is fine and would make sense at 2B if he can’t make the long throws at short. Great player, very productive and is good in every part of game. Not sure how much upside there is here but I’m comfortable with him being an everyday guy worth 2–3 wins annually.

69. Samuel Zavala, OF, Padres

Previous Ranking: 40th

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Young and ultra passive, almost like the bat is too heavy to get off his shoulder. He never chases, but also takes some pitches he could do damage with. Plenty of swings-and-misses but he’s kept them down because of his approach and pitch recognition. Just turned 19-years-old and has average power with more coming. Plus athlete that can run, average defender in CF. Has yet to struggle in full-season ball and was promoted to High-A after a two productive stints with Lake Elsinore. Toolsy and still growing.

70. Troy Melton, RHS, Tigers

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 194th in 2021 / 280th in 2022

Large frame, broad chest, wide shoulders, filled out but a starter’s build with mass. Shorter elbow spiral arm action. Has thrown strikes throughout career, very little concern there, command of his pitches is above-average already. The only pitch he doesn’t land for strikes consistently is his CH but he tends nibble with it and use it for chases. Four pitches, all could be above-average or better and three of them already are. FF has slight carry with extension in mid-90s and command to both sides. CT is good but not platoon neutral like you’d hope. Some sweep, slider without depth that is filthy when he lands it on the hands of lefties.

SL has depth and is closer to a sweeping CB, tough on righties, especially with his feel for it. CH is the pitch I think could get better, it’s performing great but that’s aided by when he’s using it. Fade with depth and 8 mph off. Shoving in High-A right now despite atrocious usage, heavy heaters when behind and that’s when most of the damage comes. His FF is good but he’s the type of guy that can spin when he’s behind, especially to righties with the CT/SL. The makings of a slightly above-average starter with feel for four 55+ pitches and the ability put up #3 production in best years.

71. Robby Snelling, LHS, Padres

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 73rd in 2022

There’s some work to be done with his secondaries, but the fastball has the potential to be good and I think a lefty heater with ride is harder to teach/find. I think he’ll end up being a 93–95 arm comfortably, which would put the heater at a soft 60-grade pitch. His CB is pretty generic with below-average sweep and depth. It’s firm at 79–82 but the action is poor. He needs to throw a gyro-SL. It gives him a breaker for both righties and lefties, he can keep the CB for lefties, he has the CH to both sides and especially RHB. He needs a firmer breaker. Probably a #4 starter but he’s developing fast and could be a #3 starter by the end of 2024.

72. Arjun Nimmala, SS, Blue Jays

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 15th in 2023

Picturesque build, swing, and profile. He’s a really good athlete that should play up the middle. The swing is loft-centric with bat speed and the body will get stronger. Plenty of pull side hard-hits. Not a high-end hitter at his age and was more aggressive with breakers than he was with fastballs as a prep but he’s been very patient against both in pro ball thus far. Has his fair share of whiffs, which is expected given the extreme youth. It’s not the traditional high-floor profile but that’s how I see it, he can hit the ball hard and in the air, he’s a solid athlete, and he’ll play a position in the field with a positive value. Not enough conviction in glove at SS to say he’s an above-average regular just yet but he’s got the chance to be one.

73. Heston Kjerstad, 1B, Orioles

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 38th in 2020

Kjerstad missed his first year of pro ball with an injury, but he slowly worked his way back to his old self and is close to ready. Won’t walk and will swing-and-miss but rarely misses pitches in the zone because of plus barrel accuracy. Easy pull side loft, steepish swing path gets all of his average raw into the game, but some of his best power is into the gaps. He’ll move all over defensively, whether that’s 1B or LF/RF, he’s best in LF but can fill in if need be at 1B or RF. Average everyday player, above-average offensive production that has zero issues hitting LHP.

74. Andy Pages, RF, Dodgers

Previous Ranking: 68th

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Below-average runner with a cannon and offensive profile suited for RF. On the shelf with an injury but has always been a slugger who makes good enough decisions to walk and make up for the strikeouts. Average regular that mashes LHP. H should be an everyday guy, was much better against RHP this season, but worst case scenario he carries the strong side of a platoon with average defense in the corner.

75. Jordan Beck, RF, Rockies

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 50th in 2022

Solid defender in the corner, has played a lot of CF this year but makes more sense in RF. Plus arm with some speed. Left-handed power, hammers RHP, swing decisions are much better now than they were in college. Has been striking out way more in Double-A and the power has been worse but he should hit for plus power and be a decent everyday guy.

76. Dylan Lesko, RHS, Padres

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 20th in 2022

Lesko’s three-pitch mix is as good advertised. He’s a SL away from pushing himself from a #4 to fringy #3. His CH is filthy, FF has plus carry at 95. CB is slow at times but big and misses bats while getting taken for strikes at a high rate. He might not be the best arm in San Diego’s system anymore with Snelling’s development bu he’ll be a solid starter ready for 2025.

77. Orelvis Martinez, 3B, Blue Jays

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Great athlete with physciality and wiry strength. Future 3B who never developed at SS, his profile makes sense in the hot corner anyways. Pitch recognition isn’t great, some swing-and-miss, not enough plate discipline to hide his below-average bat-to-ball skills but he’s more of a slugger who runs into a pitch and gets to 30 HR often. The last time he hit a groundball was during the Bush administration, so he’s a low BABIP hitter but the power is good enough that it won’t matter and he’ll still walk ~10% of time.

78. Chase DeLauter, RF, Guardians

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 15th in 2022

There are few things more enjoyable than a DeLauter swing. It’s like the car crash everybody slows down to check out. There’s nothing aesthetically pleasing about this swing other than it’s similarities to the best golfer in the world, Scottie Scheffler. He makes it work, and he’s done so for quite some time. His bat-to-ball skills are the best part of his game, but the contact quality is solid. Nothing special here, college CF that will move over to RF and be a 55 there, average everyday player. Has had multiple ankle issues thanks to Charleston’s atrocious surface that finally got redone.

79. Diego Cartaya, C, Dodgers

Previous Ranking: 21st

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Fell off with his promotion to Double-A but I still think he’s an average catcher with plus power and around average swing decisions. Was obviously much higher on him last year but the steep swing path equipped with plenty of swing-and-miss caught up to him in Double-A when is plate discipline started to depreciate. Still think he could have a 5+ win season at his best but his median outcome is closer to an inconsistent ~2-win player.

80. Noble Meyer, RHS, Marlins

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 16th in 2023

Well built plus plus athlete with arm speed. Similar level of talent/projection to Mick Abel, who also came out of Oregon in ’20, different arsenals. Noble works east/west with some sink/run and a tough low launch release that will produce two heater variations by the time he debuts. Sitting 93–96, was mid-90s as a prep and got into the upper-90s.

Has two breakers, both sweepers. CB gets plus sweep with drop at 76–79, SL is low-80s and straight sidespin, sweeper shape that has always been his weapon. Better feel for the SL, future plus-pitch once it gets into the mid-80s with that vicious late sweep. CB is so nasty and moves a ton, but I’m not sure if he’ll consistently land it. Lively arm that will end up with above-average stuff, average control. Should be a #3 starter when he fully develops. High risk arm with volatility in the profile.

81. Justin Foscue, 2B, Rangers

Previous Ranking: 99th

Draft Ranking(s): 30th in 2020

Well-rounded offensive profile at 2B. Had an injury earlier in the year but came back looking the same. Struggled at 3B but average at 2B and can stay there for the better part of career. Has shown more pull side loft in previous years which is why I think he could sneak in a 30 HR season, but you’re probably getting 20–25. Plus hitter that walks, boring player but average production on consistent basis. Should give you ~20-wins over a 10 year career, reliable hitter in the middle-third of your order.

82. Luisangel Acuna, SS, Mets

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Glove first profile, above-average across the board at SS and has the twitch/athleticism to play there for a decade. Probably has an up and down career offensively since he’s so reliant on running a high BABIP to be productive. Flat VBA with average bat speed so it’d bet the under on him outperforming x-stats. Below-average power, ~15 HR over a full season. At his best, probably slashes .290/.330/.370, in his lesser years I’d expect closer to a .260/.300/.340. Ranging from ~2-wins to ~4-wins. Bat-to-ball will have to do the heavy lifting on offense, glove is the carrying tool in general.

83. Payton Martin, RHS, Dodgers

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): Not Ranked

Lean, undersized kid with a small lower half and body in the mold of Sonny Gray. Was a late-rounder last year out of high school and came out of nowhere this year but hasn’t thrown since July due to an undisclosed injury. Has arm strength and a quick clean stroke. Mostly 93–96 with ride and a flat angle. Hasn’t learned how to elevate his heater, not missing as many bats as you’d expect because of that.

SL is a tight downward breaking pitch in mid-80s, starting to get into that 85–89 range now. It’s his best pitch right now. Late blooming kid that is shoving in Low-A. Wide range of outcomes here since it’s a limited sample size and there’s no track record. Stuff, control and athleticism at a young age all point to a middle rotation arm. Absolutely love the arm talent here.

84. Druw Jones, CF, Diamondbacks

Previous Ranking: 19th

Draft Ranking(s): 2nd in 2022

Tore his shoulder hitting batting practice after signing and struggled badly in his debut season. He’s an elite athlete with size and plenty of projection left to go with bloodlines. He’s an everyday CF that can cover ground with his long strides and double off a runner with his arm. His swing isn’t aesthetically pleasing and it’s awkward at times. Wiry with long legs lacking definition. Plus bat speed, long track record as a prep. Has barrel accuracy that can be inconsistent, hasn’t synced everything up as a pro yet. He’s patient, has a great approach. His eye is fine, has been pressing amidst the struggles and chasing a bit too much. He’s not somebody that’ll walk a ton, more of a swinger. Still think he’s an average regular because of the glove and will have the rare all-star appearance when the bat is running hot.

85. Justin Crawford, CF, Phillies

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 17th in 2022

Another plus plus athlete with bloodlines, he really hasn’t been all that good. The swing is a mess and he creates more divots than a 20 handicap golfer. He beats out groundballs because of the speed but won’t be hitting for much power, which is fine but he better defend and walk. His bat-to-ball skills are above-average, as you’d expect when you’re swinging down at the ball. He’s physcially unable to hit a fastball down, especially sinkers. Right now there’s not much to like but he has size and athleticism so I’m waiting for him to develop. Barely missed my top-100 last year.

86. Edgar Quero, C, White Sox

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): N/A

Young for his level, doing nothing special but plenty of 50-grade tools. Average defender and hitter, below-average power, really good approach and an advanced skilled hitter for his age. Switch-hitter, some shades of Kibert Ruiz but a much better batter eye’s. Not a lot of upside, especially if ABS comes into the game but he’s a high probability big leaguer.

87. Colt Emerson, SS, Mariners

Previous Ranking: 21st

Draft Ranking(s): 17th in 2023

Emerson has been hitting the ball better than any player from the ’23 draft, he has plus raw power and could get to 65-grade raw. His swing works and he might be able to play SS long-term. If he had to move off it would be to 3B since the arm is above-average, left-handed stick with thump that is barely 18-years-old. Walking a ton but discipline is right around average.

88. Kyle Hurt, RHS, Dodgers

Previous Ranking: 51st

Draft Ranking(s): 208th in 2020

Hurt went to work this offseason and moved near the Dodgers training site, he’s gone from 20-grade control to flashing average control at times. He’s always had the stuff to start but never landed it in the zone, he’s now throwing two of his pitches for 61% or more strikes, his SL is just shy at 59%. His FF has average carry but at 94–98 from a lowish release, above-average. Upper-80s SL is sharp with depth, above-average. CB is his 2K waste pitch and has a big drop. The CH was his bread-and-butter in his earlier years and it’s just as good, a plus pitch with SSW traits and late tumble/fade. He was a stretch in my top-100 last year but he’s got a trio of 55+ pitches and his thickset can handle the workload of a #4 starter.

89. Kyle Teel, C, Red Sox

Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 454th in 2020 / 18th in 2023

Another boring but good player, plus athlete with a quick arm. Undersized non-muscular build, not sure how much he’ll hit with wood but he has barrel accuracy and a solid approach so he should be able to hit for average and get just shy of 20 HR. Very low ceiling, high probability big leaguer.

90. Jud Fabian, CF, Orioles

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 17th in 2021 / 19th in 2022

Above-average defender in CF; it’s his carrying tool and gives him a good chance of being a 4th outfielder even if the bat-to-ball skills continue to plummet his offensive production. He doesn’t have crazy raw power, but he has feel for pulling the ball with loft. Could post a 25/25 season easily, but he might bat below the Gallo line. Steep swing path and advanced approach. Can play a premium position, plus power, 30+ HR upside. Ran into a brick wall with his promotion to Double-A after hammering the ball in Low-A then High-A twice. We’ve talked about him for what feels like forever but he’s still just 22-years-old. Should slash somewhere in the .220/.340/.420 range. Inconsistent but an average regular over large sample.

91. Drew Thorpe, RHS, Yankees

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 76th in 2022

Thorpe is just another product of the Yankees’ revamped player development staff. Part of this assembly line they’ve started to form that includes Chase Hampton, Richard Fitts, Will Warren and much more. His CH is a plus pitch but doesn’t pop off the page metrically, he just sells it really well and the command of it is plus. His low-80s sweeper is a work-in-progress but the good ones are solid. Mid-80s CT can get all the way up to 90 and has late life, plus plus control of it. His FF in college is what made him intriguing, and he still gets above-average carry on it at 91–94. After dominating High-A, they pushed him up to Double-A where he’s been even better. His arsenal is platoon neutral and I think he’ll be able to hold down the #4 spot on a competitive rotation. Plus command, somewhat high foor profile that could be ready by the end of next season.

92. Daniel Susac, C, Athletics

Previous Ranking: 84th

Draft Ranking(s): 207th in 2020 / 11th in 2022

Well-rounded profile with plus bat-to-ball skills and above-average contact quality. His pitch recognition isn’t the best, chases breaking balls but hammers the mistakes. Might have one or two below-average regular seasons but he’s a consistent ~2-win player that will play catcher long-term. Has a cannon and will fit in at catcher whenever ABS is introduced.

93. Jacob Melton, CF, Astros

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 66th in 2022

Quick runner that might have to move off of CF, I’ve got him staying put for now but it’s not a high probability. Has the speed to play there but some of his routes are shaky. Some power from the left side, started off slow but has came around and was just sent to Double-A. Walking a bit, not striking out too much but nothing in the profile points to an everyday guy just yet. He’s a step below that but I think he could jump up into that role if he continues to trend in the direction he has.

94. Connor Phillips, RHS, Reds

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 87th in 2020

95. Tyler Black, 3B, Brewers

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 40th in 2021

Doesn’t do much damage and isn’t a standout defender but has a really good approach and will run a high BABIP; steep VBA with speed and heavy LD tendency. Soft hitting 3B, would love to see him play CF again like he did last year. Not sure he’ll have a season better than 3-wins but he’s a good bet to at least be a second-division regular and he should be a boring but average everyday player with the hit and discipline being his best skills.

96. Thomas Saggese, 3B, Cardinals

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): Not Ranked

Lacks the bat speed of players with similar bat-to-ball and swing decisions and since there’s not much defensive upside he’s harder to push higher but he’s a solid all-around player with enough tools to be an average regular at times, don’t think he’ll ever be good enough to make an all-star game but a handful of valuable 2-win seasons is a good bet with him.

97. Owen Caissie, RF, Cubs

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 214th in 2020

Nothing about Caissie is safe, he’s a voltaile profile but very few players are able to hit the ball as hard as him so he’s deserving of a late bump on the list. He has 80-grade raw power and doesn’t struggle to pull the ball off a scoreboard. His swing is crude and whiffs a ton, as a corner outfielder there’s a lot of pressure on him hitting for power and on the days he doesn’t he’s a black hole in the lineup. If he can continue to develop there’s an upper percentile outcome of ~4-wins at his best, probably ranges between 1–2 wins in most years.

98. Robert Gasser, LHS, Brewers

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 96th in 2021

Solid #4 starter with a low slot and four-seam that can cut at times. His CT/SL combo is where most of his outs come from. The SL has plus plus sweep in the low-80s and his CT is a gyroball in the upper-80s. He’s mostly a 3-pitch guy but he’ll throw a CH to RHB and SI when he wants to land a strike or get soft contact. His CT is tough on the hands of RHB and plays for some swing-and-misses against LHB. Above-average control and quick proximity. Not the best stuff, good enough with decent command.

99. Kevin Parada, C, Mets

Previous Ranking: 64th

Draft Ranking(s): 100th in 2020 / 6th in 2022

Parada has been a let down, he might not be an everyday catcher but he was alright in High-A and I really liked his chances of being an above-average hitter behind the plate out of Georgia Tech last year. His power hasn’t been as good as expected, still too early to fork him entirely but the writing is on the wall. Very low upside here, still think he’s on the cusp of an average regular if he can get back to mashing balls in the air.

100. Justice Bigbie, LF, Tigers

Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 259th in 2020 / 345 in 2021

Bigbie doesn’t have a position but hammers the ball. Since he was a senior sign in ’21, he’s on the older sign and will turn 25-years-old before the ’24 season. He’s a below-average defender in LF but has 65-grade bat-to-ball skills and hits the ball hard at an optimal LA often. Low upside profile since he doesn’t walk, but that could change if he wasn’t so aggressive. His plate discipline is above-average and if he wanted to I bet he could get his walk rate well into the double-digits. When the offense struggles, he’ll barely be serviceable, so there’s a lot of pressure on that but I’m a believer in the bat-to-ball, power, and discipline.

Just Missed The List:

Austin Gauthier, 2B, Dodgers

Santiago Suarez, RHS, Rays

Trey Sweeney, 3B, Yankees

Connor Norby, 2B, Orioles

Shay Whitcomb, SS, Astros

Chase Petty, RHS, Reds

Moisés Ballesteros, C, Cubs

Jacob Berry, Bench, Dinos

Joey Loperfido, CF, Astros

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