I’ve rarely tried to cover or talk about the minor leagues. I find the unknowns of the amateur side far more appealing and more difficult. Usually when I am watching or looking at minor league video and data it’s because I was checking up on someone I followed before they were drafted. Now that I’ve created draft boards for the last three classes, a lot of the top prospects are guys I like to watch, the others I’ve started paying attention to more often just for the sake of comparison. Because of that, I decided to put together a list.
It’s worth noting that most of the information I’m ranking and grading players on isn’t publicly available and so it’ll be abstract relative to the main-stream lists. On top of that I’m relying more on the numbers than my eyes since these are players already facing high-end competition and reaching their peak body projections, so there’s not a lot of physical projecting left to do like there would be if it were in an amateur setting. For the sake of simplicity, any player that has already debuted in the big leagues won’t be included.
1. Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks
Carroll has a .415 xwOBA in Triple-A and won’t turn 22-years-old for another week. He’s a gold glove level defender in CF with the potential for a 120 wRC+ when it all clicks. He takes bad pitches and doesn’t whiff on pitches in the zone. He’s one of the more selective hitters and takes pitches on the edges of the zone which projects well at the next level with regards to him having a high OBP, average SLG profile. Could end up being a 6 win player for a year or two, but the medium outcome appears to be a 4–5 win guy who has high-end athleticism and all-around above-average skills offensively.
2. Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Orioles
Henderson is already tearing it up in Triple-A and has a wOBA above .400 across both levels he played in this year. He’ll never have a plus hit tool and already strikes out a lot in the minors, but he has above-average plate discipline and makes good decisions with limited chases. His contact quality is good and he has 70-grade raw power with a Max EV of 112.3 mph. He’s likely a 45 at short and a 55 at third, better shot of ending up at third long-term but short could be his spot until he starts to get into his mid-20s. He hits the ball hard and in the air from the left side. He has issues with left-handed breakers, but hammers them from righties. Looks like a 4–5 win player at his peak.
3. James Wood, OF, Nationals
Wood is the reverse Chad Bradford in the sense that he’s a freak, but in a good way. Out of all prospects < 20 years old with 100+ PA in full-season leagues this year, Wood is one of just 4 with a 90th percentile EV > 107.5 mph, one of 23 with a zone whiff rate < 15%, one of 24 with a chase rate < 20%, and he’s the only prospect with all three. Wood was your rare long-limbed amateur prospect with elite athleticism and the twitch to play CF at the next level despite the frame of a RF. He was ranked 30th coming out of high school on my ’21 board. He’s been playing CF and could probably be a 50 at that spot in the MLB, but I’d imagine he ends up in RF likewise to his comp, Aaron Judge. Wood has yet to flash a flaw in his game thus far and limits the in-zone whiffs while hitting the ball as hard as anybody in the minor leagues. If he continues to trend this way he’ll likely be the top prospect in baseball. At 19-years-old, he has a higher xwOBA than Aaron Judge at the same level while 2.5 years younger, There’s no prospect in baseball with more upside than him right now.
4. Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers
Chourio is young like Wood but is more likely to stay in CF. In his transition from A to High-A, he’s started making more contact at the expense of lesser contact quality. He’s just 18.4 years old but has already showed 55-grade raw with the ability to lift with authority and to his pull side. He’s performing well despite an unrefined approach and looks like a 4–5 win player at his peak with the floor of a 1–2 win guy who can run a slightly above league average wRC+ while playing 55 defense in CF.
5. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Orioles
Grayson touches 99 with his 70-grade four-seam that has plus lift and misses bats, he’s flashed a cutter with slight glove side break in the upper-80s, low-90s which looks like a useful pitch when trying to go inside and/or steal a strike when behind. His SL is a 55 with some sweep in the low-80s, CB is his best breaker and has drop at 76–79. His CH flashes a 70, he kills lift and gets some fade, SSW traits, feel for it, and he lands it for strikes and below the zone for chases. He’s already in Triple-A and is shoving, throws enough strikes, has plus stuff, misses bats, and looks like a high-end rotation piece.
6. Eury Pérez, RHP, Marlins
Pérez has a 70-grade four-seamer and a somewhat low release while getting above-average lift and touching 100 while working in the upper-90s. He has a plus gyro-heavy SL at 84–87 that performs, has tried to throw another version of a SL in the low-80s with more sweep but it’s average. Has a 55 CH that has more run than lift and his feel for it is good enough to let it play. Could end up being better than Grayson, the gap between the two is non-existent, the future talent levels are both 4–5 win guys at the top of a rotation. Eury is just 19-years-old and could be in the big leagues before he turns 21. He’s living in the zone as a 19-year-old in Double-A and looks like a polished starter already.
7. Elijah Green, OF, Nationals
Elijah has yet to make his pro debut but the tools are just so good. He was the highest ranked player on my ’22 board and was selected 5th overall. It’s a profile similar to that of Byron Buxton, who was hot/cold in the minors until it all came together during his third year in the MLB. Ultimately that’s what I expect Elijah to do in the minors; show flashes of 60-grade power and defense while having the athleticism/twitch to get through lumps of whiffs. Elijah’s discipline has improved and I think he could end up being the best player in baseball if he reaches his 90th percentile career outcome. His medium outcome is a 3 win type that hits 25–30 HR in CF with a .320-.330 OBP.
8. Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles
Cowser was ranked 15th on my ’21 board, but he’s surpassed expectations offensively and now looks like an above-average hitter with power and 20+ HR upside in CF. Long-term I see him in RF where he’ll fit in but in the short-term he can hold his own in CF, 45-grade at the spot. His plate discipline is his best trait but he combines accuracy with barrel impact and makes enough contact to perform while still swinging to do damage. It’s a middle-of-the-order bat, potential 2–4 win player for a decade.
9. Anthony Volpe, 2B, Yankees
Volpe’s skills are all above-average and yet it hasn’t translated to a highly productive season in Double-A like one would’ve thought. He’s ran a .351 xwOBA this year. The swing decisions, bat-to-ball skills are both good but not outlier traits, the contact quality lags behind them slightly and he hasn’t lifted the ball as well as I expected a few years back. I don’t expect him to play SS long-term but it looks like a 115–120 wRC+ profile at a non-offensive position where he’ll be a plus defender.
10. Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds
Cruz has a similar frame and power output to that of Oneil Cruz but he’s whiffing way more in Double-A than Oneil did, the hit tool is only real concern as the athleticism, power, and speed are all plus or better. He has 70-grade raw power and has a Max EV of 118.2 mph with. 90th EV of 111.8 mph in Double-A. He might have the best power of any minor leaguer, the list of players with 100+ PA and a 90th EV > 110 mph can be counted on one hand, and the only SS/CF of the bunch is of course, Oneil Cruz. There’s 40+ HR upside with Elly and his career outcomes range from a 1–2 median, all the way to a 90th percentile of 6–7 wins.
11. Jordan Walker, 3B, Cardinals
Walker was ranked 33rd on my ’21 board coming out of high school. He hits the ball very hard and does it often, but he hasn’t shown the ability to lift his hard hits enough to warrant 70-grade power. It’s a 60 right now, he hits the majority of his 105+ mph batted balls below 15 degrees and doesn’t get as much production on them as you’d like. There’s still 35+ HR upside with him because of the raw aptitude of his swing but he’s yet to tap into it fully. Has looked good in Double-A, doesn’t have the skills of a pure hitter but will be good enough contact-wise to allow the power to do the heavy lifting. Corner defender, should play 3B and LF/RF long-term. Some of the best bat speed of any minor leaguer.
12. Curtis Mead, 2B, Rays
Mead is starting to develop into your modern day utility role while still looking like a high-end hitter. He can play average defense at 2B and that’s where I see him, but I think he can hold his own at LF/3B to the point of him not having to play 1B very much. I think he might be the best hitter in the minor leagues and his box score stats aren’t an accurate reflection of such as his .452 xwOBA is about 70 points higher than his actual. He’s getting some tough luck on batted balls. He’s rarely whiffing in-zone and the contact quality is elite. Could be a 120–125 wRC+ profile with neutral to slightly above value in the field.
13. Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets
I’m low on Alvarez relative to the population. He has a 37% Z minus O swing rate in Triple-A but has managed to run a high walk rate which is where almost all of his run production has come from. Doesn’t look sustainable. Has .195 xBA in Triple-A, but the raw power is where he’s getting most of his love as he hits the ball hard; has a 90th EV > 105 mph and a Max > 110 mph. His power is plus, he lifts with authority and could hit 25–30 HR, if he doesn’t hit for power though it’ll be a rough offensive profile. He’s an average reciever with a below-average arm, I think he’ll split time at C and 1B and sit right around a 105 wRC+ for the majority of his career with peaks around 115. It all hinges on him hitting for power.
14. Josh Jung, 3B, Rangers
Jung is much older then his fellow top prospects but had a higher wOBA in Triple-A last year than nearly all of them. He was tearing it up and showed elite contact quality with a .404 xwOBA, low enough in-zone whiff rate and good enough plate discipline to get on-base. This was all before he tore his labrum and had surgery leading to him starting his ’22 season late. He’ll hit for power, has managed to hit nearly all of his batted balls between 10–30 degrees or 95+ mph. I see him as fringy defender who will provide all of his value with the bat while being good enough at third to stick and not lose value. Could be a 3–4 win player for a few years. If he can get back to his old self he should be up in the big leagues by the end of ‘23.
15. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox
Mayer was lumped in the middle of that highly regarded ’21 prep shortstop class, he was 5th on my ’21 board and looks like potentially the best player in the class a year removed. He’s yet to transition into A+ like Lawlar, and that’s where Jordan saw a large drop-off in production but Mayer is also half-a-year younger and is hitting the ball better at Salem. It’s a combination of above-average power with enough contact in the zone, his bat-to-ball skills are fringy and the hit tool is more decision-making driven rather than the contact side. I see him as a plus 3B, not a SS.
16. Noelvi Marte, SS, Mariners
Marte has yet to combine his barrel accuracy with his bat speed and hasn’t been as productive as the tools suggest. He’s running a .314 xwOBA in High-A but I like the hit/power skills and think he’ll trend upward as he gets moved up the minor league ladder. He’s a fringy defender that will hit for power and create his value with the exceptional feel for lifting his best contact.
17. Daniel Espino, RHP, Guardians
Espino has missed the majority of his ’22 season with an injury but he was shoving in Double-A with 60-grade stuff prior to the missed time. He has an 80-grade four-seamer with elite ride, elite velocity, and really good results. His SL at 85–89 flashes plus-plus and has yet to get touched by minor league hitters. His CH is average, the CB has plus drop at 74–78 and looks like a weapon in 2-strike counts. Because of the injury risk he’s ranked lower than I’d like, he could easily be the best pitcher on this list when it’s over with.
18. Colson Montgomery, SS, White Sox
Colson’s athletic data testing in high school suggested he was a SS despite his unconventional size for the spot, and the White Sox have stuck him there. He looks like a long-term 45 at the spot and has maybe the best bat-to-ball skills of any hitter on this list. Ranked 35th on my ’21 board, he’s always been a performer, we just weren’t sure if the hit/power would show up at the same time. He’s run a .386 xwOBA in High-A and is walking more than he strikes out. There’s 5+ win upside here.
19. Druw Jones, OF, Diamondbacks
Druw will miss the season with a shoulder surgery he suffered in batting practice. Ranked 2nd on my ’22 board, we’ll have to wait awhile for his highly anticipated debut. He’s the son of former big leaguer and potential hall-of-famer, Andruw Jones. Similarly to his father, he is a plus-athlete and 70-runner that plays the field well with range in CF and a plus-arm. Druw played on the same team as Elijah Green in the summer and split reps but he held his own when in CF. Jones is still growing and has projection in a lean frame and so he could outgrow CF from a size-perspective, but he’s still an incredible athlete and he gets good reads on balls. It’s a 55-glove in CF with a 60-arm. In the box he works with plus bat speed and creates his power through loft in a flat path that makes a ton of contact. He’s able to square up balls much easier than some of his peers in part to above-average swing decisions as well as some high-end pitch recognition abilities. He’s a plus-hit/plus-power bat with five 55+ tools and four at 60 or better. The talent and bloodlines line up as what is, in my opinion, one of the best prospects in baseball.
20. Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rockies
I’m a bit higher on Tovar’s power relative to the major publications, the majority of his 105+ mph batted balls are hit > 20 degrees and he very rarely wastes his best hits, he has just 55 raw but I think it’s 55-grade in-game power and 20+ HR upside at SS which puts him in that 3–4 win territory as long as he can limit the chases, which he’s yet to show he can, and continue to avoid in-zone whiffs. He’s been solid in Double-A and just turned 21-years-old.
21. Diego Cartaya, C, Dodgers
Cartaya has plus power and can hit the ball hard, he’s posted a .405 xwOBA this year and has elite contact quality with hard hit and sweet spot rates above 40%. His swing decisions are fringy but he makes plenty of contact in the zone to avoid running alarming strikeout rates. Has a 110.6 mph max EV, looks like a 110–120 wRC+ type. He’s a really good defender, more importantly he has a 60 arm and will fit the mold of a robo-ump catcher when they arrive.
22. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets
Baty has improved a lot in his extended time in Binghamton. His power is real and could produce upwards of 25 in the MLB. He’s making plenty of contact in the zone and has around average swing decisions. He’s improved in the field which is a big development for him as he won’t have to move over to 1B. I think he can hold his own in LF and at third. His contact quality is elite and he’s posted a Max EV above 114 mph.
23. DL Hall, LHP, Orioles
Hall’s control has been the only issue in Triple-A, the stuff is real. He’s up to 100 from the left side with slightly above-average lift from a generic release but at 95–99 it’ll play for whiffs. His SL may be a 70 with some sweep at times in the mid-80s, up to 90. The CB has 51" of drop at 80–83 and looks like a 60. His CH is good but not great though the feel is above-average and I like how he uses it, flashes 55. It’s a starter profile, there’s four above-average or better pitches and at least two plus ones, the FF is a borderline 60.
24. Jasson Dominiguez, OF, Yankees
Domínguez looks like the real deal with an average glove in CF, plus maybe plus-plus raw power, above-average bat-to-ball skills and improving swing decisions. He’s been impressive so far in High-A even if the box scores don’t reflect it, he’s rarely whiffing in-zone and has been better at taking bat pitches. The Martian’s contact quality is above-average and I think he’ll hit 30+ HR numerous times. He has a Max EV of 112.7 mph at just 19 years-old.
25. Coby Mayo, OF, Orioles
Mayo may be able to hit for both average and power, though it didn’t appear that way in high school. He was ranked 114th on my ’20 board and got high reviews for the power and physical projection. His hit tool may be average or at least a 45 and allow him to get into that .250 — .260 average range at times, I envision him as a 110–115 wRC+ bat at 3B/LF when it’s all said and done, he’s yet to really play LF in pro ball so far but I think he projects well there. In his limited time in Double-A he’s flashed elite contact quality, it hasn’t translated into run production yet due to the out of zone whiffs.
26. Bobby Miller, RHP, Dodgers
Bobby’s stuff is unreal, he might have three 70-grade secondaries. Even if CH and CB are 60s most of the time, both flash 70 when on, and the SL is an easy 70 with sweep at 87–92. He sits 97–100 and touches 102 with enough ride from his slot to let it play. It’s an incredible profile, a very clear starter arsenal with the stuff to go through a limit three times. He’s way better than his ERA in Double-A suggests, has a .263 xwOBA and 3.08 FIP in Tulsa. He was 47th on my ’20 board, and I don’t think he’d be this good if he were drafted by another org. The Dodgers have taken him to the next level.
27. Kyle Harrison, LHP, Giants
Harrison’s heater isn’t too far off from Josh Hader, thrown from a slightly lower release with less ride, it plays like a four-seam despite a sinker short-form. Looks like a 70-grade pitch. He’s up to 98 with it and sits 91–96 with a breaker that blends into a CB at times, it sweeps with some drop at 80–85, above-average. His CH is a plus-pitch with feel, fade, and drop at 9–12 mph below his heater. He got hit around at the futures game but I’ll trust the stuff and performance in High-A and Double-A over the single day outing.
28. Griff McGarry, RHP, Phillies
McGarry went from being ranked 133rd on my ’20 board to 65th in ’21 despite a lackluster senior year due to the his elite stuff. Now he’s one of the best pitching prospects and has gone from 30 control to 40 while still flashing 60 stuff. He’s throwing enough strikes to allow himself to work in his two plus breakers and he’s able to use the 70-grade four-seamer less in hitter’s counts as a result. Oddly enough, McGarry is what we thought Leiter would be. His sweeping SL flashes plus-plus, the somewhat high efficiency CB in the low-80s is an easy 60, and the CH looks like a 60 when it’s on but the feel is fringy and it’s closer to a 55. This could be a 4–6 win profile if he reaches his 80th percentile career outcome, his median outcome is 1–2 wins as a SP or RP.
29. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs
Pete was ranked 17th on my ’20 board and looked like a top-5 pick early in his high school days. He might be the least patient hitter in the minors as he swings at 62% of pitches. It’s the reason he’s run such a low walk rate. It’s a weird profile because it’s a power-over-contact profile despite better bat-to-ball skills than raw power. Said bat-to-ball skills are a 60 and he runs an elite 10–30 degree LA rate while making a decent amount of contact in lieu of terrible swing decisions. With his swing path and bat speed I think he can hit 15+ HR and be a 90–100 wRC+ guy with the defense to be a 2–3 win type.
30. Andrew Painter, RHP, Phillies
Painter might just be the next Justin Verlander, now that’s a lofty comp because the guy will be in the hall of fame, but Painter’s heater compares quite well and his stuff is legit. From a pure pitch data perspective, I think the two are similar, but JV had the benefit of throwing in an era where pitch shape wasn’t yet comprehended. Ranked 50th overall on my ’21 board, about 15–20 spots too low, his heater has taken steps forward and his high efficiency at 94–100 will let it play in the MLB. He touches 102, has a plus sweeping SL and plus sweeping CB. The two are both distinct shapes, one at 82–84, the other at 78–82, but both happen to sweep 12+ inches.
31. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Twins
Rodriguez is injured right now, but he had a 10% chase rate, swung just 33% and had a 112 mph Max EV at 19-years-old in Single-A. He had a .456 xwOBA and posted 99th percentile contact quality. Yes, the whiffs are an issue but I think the plate discipline is good that the walks will drown out the strikeouts. Might have some of the best offensive upside in the minors right now.
32. Mick Abel, RHP, Phillies
Abel looks like your prototypical middle of the rotation starter with the stuff and build to put together a decade of productive outings in a starter role. His four-seamer flashes plus-plus with plus ride at 94–98. His CB is better than his SL, but both are above-average to plus. His CB is thrown hard with drop and sweep and the SL is more of a gyro-heavy look with slight sweep at times but mostly a depth-oriented shape. The CH has fringy feel and looks like below-average now but the shape is good enough and it could become useful.
33. Bo Naylor, C, Guardians
Naylor has turned it up a notch since his promotion to Triple-A. Prior to arriving in Columbus he hasn’t really been the best power hitter and was more skilled on the hit tool side but now it looks like 55-grade power from the left side. He’s increased his zone contact rate and raised his xwOBA from .306 in Double-A to .379 in Triple-A. It’s hard to be all in on a guy who just started flashing 55-grade offensive skills this year, but I do think he’s much better than the past three years minor league seasons indicate.
34. Gavin Williams, RHP, Guardians
Until Williams pitches in the MLB, it’ll be tough to feel comfortable ranking him high. He’s battled health issues dating all the way back to his early collegiate days at East Carolina. He was 14th on my ’21 board and has one of the better heaters and definitely the best four-seam/curve combo. He’s one of the only pitchers in the minors with 18+ inches of carry on their heater and 65+ inches of drop on their curve. He’ll mix in his above-average SL at 83–87 and then show the CH at times. All of his pitches play for whiffs, but the breakers are his strikeout pitches.
35. Gavin Stone, RHP, Dodgers
Stone wasn’t even included on my ’20 board, and went at the end of the draft to the Dodgers who might’ve found the best pitcher in the draft for next to nothing. Stone is nearly 24-years-old and flashes four 55+ pitches with the SL and CH being the best of them, the latter flashes plus-plus and gets thrown for a ton of strikes, whiffs, and chases thanks to a 8–10 mph drop-off and fade with limited lift. His SL has some sweep at times but it’s typically getting depth and below barrels. His four-seam is your typical modern day heater that plays well for whiffs due to the release/movement traits, it also helps that he’s touching 98 and sitting 92–96. It’s the profile of a 2–3 win arm in the middle of a rotation. He’s basically Jack Leiter with a much better CH.
36. Marco Luciano, SS, Giants
Luciano has been quite the disappointment this year. He’s struggled to make quality contact, has whiffed a lot, and is running low expected clips. You have to do a lot of projecting with him to see anything more than a on/off big leaguer with enough pull side lift power to hit for 20+ HR and play adequate defense at short. He could come back next year looking like a much better version of himself but he’s yet to flash that 4+ win upside he got pegged with by analysts last year.
37. Evan Carter, OF, Rangers
Carter was the surprise day two pick of the ’20 draft due to the pandemic limiting chatter of pop-up prospects. He can play decent defense in CF though I see him in RF long-term. He makes plenty of contact and doesn’t expand the zone much. Hence a walk rate that nearly mirrors his strikeout rate. He has a Max EV > 110 mph and has been productive in High-A. The approach is good and I think he’ll be a high OBP type.
38. Henry Davis, C, Pirates
Davis was ranked 4th on my ’21 board coming out of Louisville. He has 60-grade raw; it’s more gap-driven though and I don’t see him hitting the ball in the air enough to reach 60-grade in-game power, it’ll be closer to a 50. He hits for contact and may be a high AVG type with enough XBHs to have an average to above SLG. I think he’ll be a 14–18 HR type due to his swing path and unless there’s a change with the path he’ll probably run a 110 wRC+ and be good enough arm strength wise to play the spot with robo-umps. Not a high ceiling profile, looks like a 1–2 win player.
39. Tink Hence, RHP, Cardinals
Tince was ranked 49th in ’20 on my board and has elite athleticism. He’s up to 99 on the mound and sitting in the upper-90s with a 70-grade four-seamer from a very low release that he’s able to get plus ride from. His SL plays down to the lack of feel, but the CB has flashed above-average with a power-slurve shape. His CH looks alright. He’ll need to develop that SL more. Regardless, the heater is elite and I’ll bet on him developing one of the breakers more.
40. Samuel Zavala, OF, Padres
Zavala was just promoted to Low-A and turned 18-years-old less than a month ago. The skillset is impressive with 60-grade power and barrel accuracy. It’ll probably be an average to below hit tool but the power is more important and he’s already showing 25+ HR potential while performing in spite of the whiffs and chases; he’s cut down the former in his limited time in Lake Elsinore.
41. Jack Leiter, RHP, Rangers
Leiter’s 4.56 FIP and .309 xwOBA suggest he hasn’t been as bad as the box score stats suggest. But the highest ranked player on my ’21 board hasn’t lived up to the expectations coming out of Vanderbilt. His four-seamer has been the disappointment and is running just a 21% whiff rate this year due to less lift than originally thought. He can touch 99 and sits around 95 with a flat approach angle, it’s still a 60. His SL is what has me still high on him, it’s an easy 60 with with some sweep at 84–87, and the CB continues to improve with more drop than his college one at 77–80. His CH may only be average but the shape can steal some whiffs below the zone in 2-strike counts. He looks like a middle of the rotation arm that can give you 1–3 wins.
42. Oswald Peraza, SS, Yankees
Peraza has sneaky contact quality and hits the ball well even at just 165 lbs. He has above-average power, can hit for average, and I like the discipline. His Z minus O swing rate is nearly 60%. He can play plus defense at second and could be right around that 102–108 wRC+ range which puts him in the 2.5–3 win range. He’s also pretty young and he could continue getting better.
43. Shea Langeliers, C, Athletics
Shea is almost 25-years-old but has hit nearly a dozen batted balls above 110 mph this year with the majority being hit > 10 degrees. I’m a believer in the hit tool and think he can be a 110–120 wRC+ type while playing above-average defense. He has a 90th EV > 106 mph and a Max EV > 112 mph, the power profile is a 60 and he can lift the ball to get the most of his 60 raw. On an expected run production scale he’s been less than anticipated but I trust the bat-to-ball and think his tools will translate well at the ML level.
444. Michael Busch, 2B, Dodgers
Busch looks like a Max Muncy defensive outlook and can be average to below at 2B, LF, and then play above-average 1B. He hasn’t whiffed as much as the strikeout rates suggest and I think he’ll be in that 21–25% range in the MLB with above-average power. The walk rates are more concerning though as he looked like a high OBP type at UNC, like Max Muncy ironically. He’s swinging more than you’d like given the profile. Could see him as a 2–3 win player.
45. Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals
Winn was 105th on my ’20 board and listed as a SS though he got high grades on the mound and touched 99 at the biggest showcase event. He’s a SS now and has an obvious 80-grade arm with a plus glove. I trust the hit tool, but not the power. He’s in Double-A as a 21-year-old and has an xwOBA below .300 but I like the bat speed and path he takes, projects as a 90–95 wRC+ hitter.
46. Sal Frelick, OF, Brewers
Frelick was 8th on my ’21 board. Already in Triple-A after a great year, he might be the first hitter in the draft to debut. His bat-to-ball skills are elite, though the eye is just above-average, I think he’ll be an average to above OBP, average SLG type. I love the combination of athleticism/speed and think he’s a safe bet to give you 1–2 wins for a decade while roaming free in the OF.
47. Carson Williams, SS, Rays
If you like Masyn Winn, Williams should be your type as well. Ranked 44th coming out of high school on my ’21 board, he was a late-rising prospect who performed in the fall a lot. He didn’t touch 99 in high school but he did touch 95 and has a 60, maybe lite 70 arm. I think his power is better than Winn’s, the skills are short are slightly lesser, but he’s also an above-average glove there. He has a 105.1 90th EV at 19-years-old in Single-A. He’s been expanding the zone of late leading to an outlier difference in-zone whiff relative to all swings. Good defenders with 55 power at short are rare.
48. Ken Waldichuk, LHP, Athletics
Waldichuk is up to 98 from the left side from a low release with enough lift at 93–97, I like his four-seam as a 55 and the secondaries are even better. His sweeping SL is a 60, the downer CB is a 55 and his CH is plus as well. He’s a clear starter and would’ve struggled to gain a spot in the loaded Yankee rotation before he turned 26 but fortunately for him he was dealt to the A’s.
49. Adael Amador, SS, Rockies
Amador walks more than he strikes out and is running a .373 xwOBA in Low-A at 19 while playing good enough defense. I like him at the spot long-term. His bat-to-ball skills are legit and his whiff rate is just 18%. Has the hit tool to be productive, the defense is get value in the field, and enough barrel accuracy to hit for gap power.
50. Brooks Lee, SS, Twins
Brooks was ranked 3rd on my ’22 board and spent his first two years at Cal Poly demolishing baseballs. Lee’s contact quality had improved this year as a result of less contact on pitches out of the zone, and he’s seen a 13% increase in run production. He’s a plus-hitter with above-average swing decisions and plus bat speed. He’s peaked in-game at 110 mph, and doesn’t strike out. I think he’ll be a 2–3 win player over time and a 4 win player at his peak.
51. Kyle Hurt, RHP, Dodgers
Hurt was ranked 208th overall on my ’20 board but after getting traded to the Dodgers last year he’s been looking much better and has a plus four-seam that gets up to 99 and sits around 96 with lift from a low release and an elite whiff rate. He hasn’t yet gotten the results we’d expect given his stuff but I trust the 40-grade control to work and his stuff is above-average with the traits to play in the MLB. He has two plus breakers and the SL looks like a 70 at times with low efficiency at 86–90. His CB has enough drop to play well at 79–83 and it has some sweep to go with the depth. His CH also looks like a 60 with almost negative VB and fade. Has feel for the CH. It’s a starter profile.
52. Aaron Zavala, OF, Rangers
Zavala was ranked 38th last year on my board and almost didn’t sign due to an undisclosed medical concern. Fortunately he did because he’s been incredible in High-A and now Double-A after his promotion a week ago. It’s a lot of everything with him, high walk rates, low enough strikeout rates and then 60-grade raw with 55 in-game. Has a .649 xwOBAcon through 30 PA in AA, was .374 in High-A. Could see him in the MLB by the end of ‘23.
53. Luis Matos, OF, Giants
Matos looked really in Single-A, but the contact quality has been rough in High-A and the extremely high chase rates are starting to catch up with his run production. I love the bat-to-ball skills and think with a better approach he could get on at a decent rate while adding value in the field at CF or RF. He’s hit the ball hard and has EVs > 110 mph but doesn’t lift said batted balls which is the real issue, not enough power as of now to get away with whiffs.
54. Zac Veen, OF, Rockies
Veen has been just alright in High-A this year, it’s a tweener profile as he doesn’t hit for power and probably won’t while also not hitting for a lot of contact. I think he’ll be good enough at both to the point of him being productive in the MLB, but I don’t see a star level ceiling with him unless he starts hitting the ball harder more often, his 112 max EV is fine but there’s a large drop-off to his 90th and average EVs. He’s a 50 in RF.
55. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers
Jobe’s heater is a problem, and he’s yet to develop a distinct second breaker. His 70-grade slider that set the scouting world on fire when he came onto the scene in ’20 at the PG National, it’s just as good if not better now. He started out the ’21 cycle in my top-10 and dropped to 25th overall on my board due to his inability to backspin his high-spin four-seam. Said pitch has been the root cause of his struggles in Single-A. At 93–98, he’s running a 20% whiff rate with a .379 xwOBA against on the heater, clips not great for a 20-year-old throwing hard at a lower level. He’s tried to throw a sinker which is what I see him throwing long-term. He’s added a CB which drops just 5" more at 80–84, I think it’ll continue to trend up as he continues to gain feel for it, so I’m projecting both breakers to be at least 60s. I love the CH, looks like a 60 at times but a 55 more regularly. He has enough swing and miss with his secondaries to lower his heater usage below 30% and get outs at the ML level.
56. Cade Cavalli, RHP, Nationals
Cavalli was ranked 19th overall on my ’20 board, but the four-seamer is fringy even at 94–98. Fortunately he has three plus or better secondaries including his 70-grade CB. He gets 46" of drop on it at 84–87, and throws it below or at the bottom of zone. His SL gyro-heavy at 86–89 and looks like his second best pitch. And then there’s the CH which has a ton of fade and not much lift while getting thrown for strikes. I think he could be productive in the MLB despite his 45-grade four-seamer because of the three secondaries. He’ll just need to limit the usage of the pitch and live at the bottom of zone with it. It’s a low efficiency pitch and could be a high CS rate pitch when thrown down.
57. Gavin Cross, OF, Royals
Cross was the 4th best player on my ’22 board. An untraditional slugger, Cross has a path that works linearly and he gets to his 70-grade raw power by getting out front and lifting balls rather than the conventional method of getting under pitches via a stepper path. In his college career, Cross has hit 150+ balls above 95 mph, one of the highest totals in college. He’s a bonafide hitter with improving decisions and clear bat-to-ball skills. It’s a 55-grade hit tool with a 60 in-game power tool, though it’s 70-raw. Tech moved him to CF this spring due to their starter last year missing time after an injury. This might’ve helped his stock a touch, but it looks like Cross is suited for RF. He’s a 55-runner with good enough tools to be a 50-defender at the spot. Likewise to Brooks Lee, it’s a low ceiling but I like him as 2–3 win player for awhile.
58. Taj Bradley, RHP, Rays
Bradley’s four-seam has plus carry at 94–99 and will miss bats in the MLB. The SL is a 60 with depth, the CB is almost entirely backspin at 77–81 and flashes plus, and then the CH has some SSW traits with low efficiency; it has the highest whiff rate of any of his four pitches but the lowest usage despite average to above feel for it. He’s always had above-average control and looks like your back-end starter with above-average stuff and loud velocity.
59. Jace Jung, 2B, Tigers
Jung dropped in the draft and went lower than expected. He was ranked 5th on my ’22 board. Thanks to probably the best hit tool on the college side, Jung was one of the safer bets in the draft. With one of the lowest swing rate on poor pitches in college baseball, He boosts some of the best plate discipline in the class, and is one of just twelve players with 95th percentile or better swing decisions as well as bat-to-ball. It’s a 70-grade hit tool that doesn’t lack thump, carrying 60-grade raw power, he can and does do damage when he makes contact. Very rarely do you see a college hitter with the ability to hit the ball on a line/in the air as often as Jung, which is why he’s been so successful. A small blemish on the profile is that while Jung has 60-raw, he doesn’t get to it often and has a noticeable drop-off between his 75th/90th percentile EVs in relation to his max. Factor in Jung’s versatility in the field, and this is definitely a profile you could project to give you 2 wins for a decade.
60. Owen White, RHP, Rangers
White throws all four of his pitches for strikes and whiffs. It’s a starting pitcher profile and he gets above-average lift on his four-seamer that he touches 98 with. His two breakers are both plus, the SL has sweep at 84–87, the CB has both drop and sweep at 77–82 and the CH is a 55 with fade and 45 feel. I like the breakers more than the FF and think he’s throwing the latter too much.
61. Hunter Brown, RHP, Astros
Brown’s four-seamer performs with slightly above-average lift from a very high vertical release and it’s entirely because of the velocity, which gets up to 100 and ranges from 94–99. He’s apparently thrown a CH and SP, though both are low efficiency shapes with some SSW traits and late downward depth, looks like its direction shifts counter-clockwise and gains efficiency as its approaching home. Flashes plus, gets plenty of strikes/whiffs. His CB is his best pitch and may be a 70, has 57" of drop at 80–84, the SL is like a CT/SL hybrid at 89–93 with some lift and glove side break, easy 60. Love him in the middle of a rotation.
62. Alec Burleson, OF, Cardinals
Burleson was 234th on my ’20 board and some of the concerns were that he hadn’t stood out on either side of the ball (he was a pitcher and hitter in college). But that’s clearly not the case. He makes up for low walk rates with plenty of quality contact and should hit for power while playing the corners. He could peak at a125–130 wRC+ with HRs in the 24–28 range regularly.
63. Ricky Tiedemann, LHP, Blue Jays
Tiedemann was 143rd in ’20 when he was eligible as a prep, and then he dropped a few spots when he was eligible the following year out of JC. He’s gained velo and has an above-average sinker at 93–97 and then a plus sweeping SL at 79–83. I like the CH and think it’s a 60 too. His sinker can be inconsistent and it’ll sit in the dead zone at times from a generic release, but the results are suggesting it’s better than I think. He’s young; 2–3 win upside.
64. Kevin Parada, C, Mets
Parada was 6th overall on my ’22 board. He’s a catcher in a world where we’re expecting robot umps, making his position an offensive one. But because the entire profile revolves around the offensive tools, it probably doesn’t affect him as much as his peers. His arm is below-average, and he’s a below-average receiver. Parada’s approach is aggressive, as a result he swings at a lot of good pitches, as well as some of the bad ones. The positive is that his bat-to-ball skills allow for some decision-making error, and he can get away with poor swings. His batted ball numbers are good and he’s exceptionally good at creating the ideal attack angles to match pitches in order to connect with the bottom portion of the ball. It’s a high-end offensive profile at C/1B/LF.
65. Termarr Johnson, 2B, Pirates
Termarr was ranked 7th on my ’22 board. He has one of the better swing paths as he swings at low pitches with extreme positive attack angles and limits negative angled swings to that of pitches up in the zone in which the pitch flight is closer to flat. Johnson has one of the more well-rounded swings as he combines elite bat speed with quick trunk torque, hands, and barrel accuracy. The offensive profile is mostly contact-oriented due to the high connection rate and feel for his barrel, but he has an unusual amount of in-game power that shows up (relative to his size) thanks to a progressive approach. He’s a plus straightaway runner, with some mobility to his sides, but he’s not slick with the glove and likely ends up somewhere else besides short. Personally I’d like to see him in the outfield due to the speed/decent feel for the game and improving range. Maybe it’s a super utility defensive profile. Given the frame/offensive profile compares pretty well to that of Jose Ramirez, maybe that’s how his defensive outlook ends up playing out. Either way it’s a performance-based profile with impressive actions offensively.
66. Harry Ford, C, Mariners
Ford is an athletic freak that could play anywhere I bet. He was ranked 7th last year on my ’21 board. He’s ran a chase rate < 15% in Single-A and has flashed high OBP upside with a quality approach on top of a .374 xwOBAcon. I’m trusting the athleticism to carry him as he continues to get a better feel.
67. Jackson Holliday, SS, Orioles
Holliday went first overall in the draft, but I had him ranked 9th on my ’22 board. He has plenty of room to fill up, the frame is projectable. His swing is a clean left-handed stroke with above-average bat speed. Lacks power and lift, though he can thump pitches into the gaps and hit balls on a line. His approach is good and he has above-average bat-to-ball traits with good enough decisions. He has better decisions than barrel accuracy. He’s a solid athlete that should be able to handle a middle-role, likely 2B. At short he can move but the actions aren’t clean. Arm is above-average. He had some of the best numbers of any high schooler this past year and broke state records.
68. Andy Pages, OF, Dodgers
Pages hits the ball well and has a .376 xwOBAcon, but his xwOBA is just a .332. His power is real and he gets all of his 60-grade raw power to play in-game, the hit is a 50 which is enough to let the power do the lifting. He’s a fringy corner defender. Has 25–30 HR upside, could peak around 3 wins.
69. Kahlil Watson, SS, Marlins
Watson was 2nd on my ’21 board and dominant for much of his rising junior summer and senior year. It was the makeup concerns that led to a draft day slide. It’s been a rough year for the uber-athletic SS. From an overly aggressive approach to a lack of baseball feel/instincts, the only thing he’s done well this year is hit the ball hard whenever he does connect, which is obviously a great skillset. Adjusting his approach to a more selective one and allowing himself to get into more advantageous counts should be the focus so that he’s able to mature into that 125–130 wRC+ player we thought he could be a year ago.
70. Spencer Jones, OF, Yankees
Jones was ranked 12th on my ’22 board, but he moves up a few spots in this ranking. He might have the highest ceiling in the class with a 95th percentile career outcome similar to that of Aaron Judge. In college, he set the record for hardest hit batted ball at 119.1 mph this spring, and ran an average EV at 94.5 mph with a 90th EV at 112 mph. His pitch recognition and bat-to-ball skills are both average, similar to Aaron Judge out of Fresno State.
71. Triston Casas, 1B, Red Sox
Casas has loud power with a 114.9 mph Max EV, he’s shown the ability to lift balls while hitting them hard and looks like your prototypical power-hitting corner bat. He started out at third in pro ball but looks like a 1B/DH. He’ll struggle to hit for average, but the power is real and he has 30+ HR upside. If the plate discipline that has improved since his promotion to Triple-A last year continues to stick he’s a high on-base type.
72. Edwin Arroyo, SS, Mariners
Arroyo nearly had a first round grade out of high school and was ranked 31st on my ’21 board. He’s an ultra-young twitchy kid with bat-to-ball skills and athleticism to stick at short. Until the power comes around he probably won’t be a high upside player. He has a low hinged set-up and can get under pitches easily which is why all of his batted balls > 100 mph are in the air. He’s bottom-of-the-order type with a plus glove.
73. Brady House, SS, Nationals
House is just too athletic and gifted physically to not pan out, he was ranked 3rd overall on my ’21 board. Has had growing pains at short but some of the plays he’s made there were impressive. I think the concern is that his flat path and high early connection rate aren’t letting him get much power out of the 70-grade bat speed, some sort of a timing/swing tweak has to be made in order to get at least some of that power, thus far it’s been below-average in Single-A. He’s making contact enough, and his strikeout rates don’t scare me, it’s the 7 HR hit in pro ball through 61 games.
74. Robert Hassell, OF, Padres
Hassell was ranked 12th on my ’20 board but went a few spots before that. One of the main big names in the Soto deal, he’s more contact-driven and has a flat path that has yet to produce a batted ball > 105 mph with a positive LA. It’s below-average power and I’ve yet to find evidence of power not being the most predictive tool for a prospect. He’ll need to outperform his expected results over a large period of time to be more than a 1 win player with an average glove in CF. The hit tool is still a 60, so if the power begins to show 50 instead of 40 I’ll come around to seeing that 3–4 win projection others have.
75. Lazaro Montes, OF, Mariners
Montes is just 17-years-old and tearing it up in rookie ball He’s one of a select few teenagers with a max EV at or above 110 mph, it’s 70-grade raw power. He makes elite contact but tends to whiff a lot and chase. He’ll likely be a LF at the ML level and looks like a 105–110 wRC+ power-first corner profile.
76. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Diamondbacks
Lawlar didn’t have great athleticism as a prep prospect and was ranked lower on my ’21 board as a result, coming in at 13th overall. He’s looked bad at short in pro ball and I don’t think he’ll play there long-term. This is an abstract take relative to the general population and I could be wrong on it but I’m not a fan of his movement at the spot. In Low-A he performed, but his xwOBA was 62 points lower than his actual. He hasn’t been able to outperform his expected stats in his limited time at High-A, leading to struggles at the plate and what appears to be below-average power despite a steep swing path, he has just average bat speed and has hit just a few batted balls > 105 mph.
77. Logan O’Hoppe, C, Angels
O’Hoppe was dealt to Los Angeles at the deadline and is picking up where he left off in Double-A. He looks ready to get the call and had some bad luck in Triple-A last year; had a BABIP 60 points lower than his xBABIP. He’ll hit for power, 20 HR upside, not a special hit tool but serviceable. Good defender.
78. Brennen Davis, OF, Cubs
Davis has struggled in Triple-A and has a .286 BABIP which is somehow higher than his xBABIP, a rate nearly 30 points lower. He has a better athletic profile than skillset and will rely on the latter but the contact quality and bat-to-ball skills have taken steps backward this season and he hasn’t been productive at Double-A or Triple-A.
79. Eric Brown, SS, Brewers
Brown came in at 8th overall on my ’22 board. He starts with an interesting set-up, his hands start above his head holding the bat parallel to the ground. As he gets into his hinge, he brings it forward before dropping it into the slot; in position to hit as his front foot gets down. If he were late, or his timing was disturbed by the set-up, then there’d be an issue, but he’s regularly on-time. Half of his batted balls were hit > 95 mph in college, and one-fourth of them were also between 8 and 32 degrees. This combination of bat-to-ball/bat speed was unmatched in the ’22 draft, and best of all, he’s a plus athlete.
80. Cam Collier, 3B, Reds
Collier ranked 10th on my ’22 board and has shown off 60-grade raw power . He’s hit the ball as hard as 107.2 mph with a wood bat, but he doesn’t get to it very often with his 90th percentile below 100 mph. Now, he was a 17-year-old playing against 20-year-olds with a wood bat, so the fact that he’s shown the ability to hit the ball hard is impressive, and as he matures I think he’ll get to it more often naturally. But, he’s not without flaws. Collier’s hinge is quick and his load is short as he gets into launch. He’s above-average in the field and looks like a 55 athlete with a good chance of being really good at third.
81. Nick Gonzales, 2B, Pirates
Gonzales has been a let-down so far and thats coming from somebody who had him 5th on their ’20 board. The hit tool looked polished in college and on the Cape, but he’s had battles with swing and miss this year and the elite swing decisions haven’t been able to make up for his swing and miss. He’s striking out a lot and doesn’t have enough of an outlier power tool to overcome them. I think he’ll float around the 100 wRC+ mark as a 60 at 2B.
82. Tyler Soderstrom, 1B, Athletics
Soderstrom was ranked 25th on my ’20 board coming out of high school and went 26th overall. He was up to 90 on the mound in high school and it looked like he’d have the athleticism to play some RF, but instead he’s been relegated to 1B mostly and some work behind-the-plate. Either way, it’s all offense. He looks like a low OBP, high SLG type that won’t run high BABIPs due to a lack of flush contact but he has the ability to lift with authority and can muster together 20+ HR campaigns.
83. Oswaldo Osorio, SS, Dodgers
At just 17.3 years old, Osorio is already hitting the ball hard and in the air while making contact and running a 13% chase rate in rookie ball. I love the swing, tools, and defensive outlook. He’s running a .382 xwOBA.
84. Daniel Susac, C, Athletics
Susac was ranked 11th on my ’22 board and showed an impressive bat-to-ball/bat speed combination to make up for above average swing decisions watered down by an aggressive approach. He was one of a dozen college hitters with the ability to make elite contact, and also do elite damage when he does make contact. Not for nothing, his hardest hit balls also come at meaningful flights as his swing works upwards and so when he’s able to achieve his 99th percentile power outcome he’s doing so with attack angles in the 10–15 degree range, leading to balls hit > 10 degrees and in the HR window. He’s a good athlete, above-average receiver with a 50-arm.
85. Zach Neto, SS, Angels
Neto is already in High-A, ranked 12th on my ’22 board, it’s a solid all-around profile. He doesn’t have plus-power, but it’s probably 55-grade in-game power. He’s peaked in-game at a 108.8 mph; which technically doesn’t count since it was a foul ball. His swing works well as he’s constantly swinging up to connect. Even with the steepness in the path he’s still avoiding whiffs and making good contact as well as swinging at competitive pitches and laying off non-competitive ones. The glove might be good enough to stay, but he’s not a twitchy athlete. He’s a 45 at short, and a 55 at third.
86. Quinn Priester, RHP, Pirates
Priester’s four-seam is below-average even at 93–96, though I think the sinker has some potential and it’s missing more bats with a lower xwOBA. His CB at 78–83 is his best pitch; 60-grade, the SL is also a 60 with slight sweep and depth. His CH looks above-average when it’s on, but that’s rare. It still misses a lot of bats but he hasn’t shown strike with it and isn’t able to use it much. He’ll need to rely on the breakers to limits runs in the MLB but with his sinker, I think he does have a shot as a starter. He isn’t getting a lot of strikeouts in Double-A, him throwing 62% heaters is the reasoning. He uses his four-seam as his primary against lefties, and is running an 8% whiff rate on them.
87. Ceddanne Rafaela, OF, Red Sox
Rafaela had elite contact quality in High-A and traded that for less whiffs when he moved up to Double-A, he’s small and still has room to add some weight and help him hit the ball harder. He hits the ball between 10–30 degrees often which makes up for the average bat speed and because he can play SS/CF, I think there’s some intrigue.
88. Jared Jones, RHP, Pirates
Jones was 24th on my ’20 board and looked like an elite athlete who could sit in the upper-90s one day, as of now he’s usually in that 93–98 range, yet to hit 100 this year with the pitch. He gets some carry from a low release, above-average, maybe plus with added lift. His SL looks like a sweeper at times in the mid-80s, whereas the CB is a power-slurve in the low-80s. He lacks CH feel but the shape is good. May end up in a bullpen but I’m a believer in the athleticism and I think he could explode in another org with a FF tweak.
89. Tanner Bibee, RHP Guardians
Bibee’s stuff is much better now than it was in college where I had him ranked 313th after posting a 6.7 K/9 his senior year at Cal State Fullerton. His sinker is a 60-grade at 94–99 and the SL/CB combo both are above to plus. His feel for the CH is better than its shape but both elevate it up to a 60. I see Bibee as a 1–2 win starter and one heck of a development job by Cleveland.
90. Vaughn Grissom, SS, Braves
Grissom can square up anything in the zone and has quick hands. He’s been good his entire pro career and it’s been the same story in Double-A with 55 power, 55 hit, and a 45 glove at short. He probably won’t stay there in the end but either way it’s a really good offensive skillset.
91. Drew Gilbert, OF, Astros
Gilbert ranked 14th on my ’22 board and has a short double foot-tap stride where his heel is a half-foot above the ground as the pitchers beginning to release. His torso stays closed as his front food lands, and his bat is still loaded behind his shoulder. The only real flaw in an otherwise perfect profile is that Gilbert doesn’t combine his 60-grade bat speed with a low early connection rate, and so his point-of-contact is often times deeper than you’d like in order to elevate batted balls for HR. It’s a really good profile that may get even better when the Astros are able to get him to tap into all of his 60 raw power.
92. Trey Sweeney, SS, Yankees
Sweeney was ranked 6th on my ’21 board and has been much better than I thought he would in the field, but the impact and contact quality has disappointed. The Yankees made some tweaks to his swing earlier in the year and then let him go back to his old ways and he’s looked much better. I think there’s a very low chance he’s a star and provides more than 4 wins but I think there’s a high probability of 1–2 wins for a decade.
93. George Valera, OF, Guardians
Valera’s swing is gorgeous and works in a loop so his best contact comes at the bottom of the zone due to his low-ball proclivity. This also hurts him though as he can’t hit elevated four-seamers, which is essentially all they do in the big leagues. He whiffs more than he makes contact on elevated heaters and has a .286 xwOBAcon. His plate discipline gives him a chance to run an above-average OBP but I see him as someone who will need to be platooned. Like him at all three spots in the OF though RF most of the bunch.
94. Jackson Merrill, SS, Padres
Merrill came on late last year and was 110th on my ’21 board. Scouts flew out late to see him as he flew up boards during the Spring. He ended up going on Day one and has an in-zone whiff rate < 10% in Single-A. He’s registered a Max EV > 110 mph, but he isn’t getting the ball in the air and that may be his issue. Yes the hit tool is real but if he has 30/35-grade power, there’s little to no margin for error on the offensive side. I’ll wait for the HRs though because the bat-to-ball skills are approach are advanced for a teenager at short.
95. Matt McLain, SS, Reds
McLain was 10th on my ’21 board. He had some sneaky lift as an undersized athlete and thats been the case in Double-A this year. He may be a Brian Dozier type and pump 25+ HR if it all clicks. Love the approach, bat-to-ball skills have regressed. Likely a high BABIP type, fringy at short.
96. Miguel Bleis, OF, Red Sox
Bleis might be a really good defender and projects well in CF as an all-around above-average hitter. He has a 106.5 mph Max EV at 18.5 in rookie ball and has an xwOBAcon above .400. With the athleticism I’ll wait for the power to take strides forward. He’s already shown he can limit in-zone whiffs.
97. Alex Ramirez, OF, Mets
Ramirez is just 19 and has a 67% Z minus O swing rate in High-A. It hasn’t translated into walks just yet, but I think that’ll come over time. He’s a CF with some speed and above-average power. Contact quality in High-A has been much better than in Low-A. Plenty of upside on the offensive side.
98. Joe Boyle, RHP, Reds
Boyle was ranked 114th on my ’20 board and went roughly 30 spots later to the Reds who wanted to bet on the stuff. He might be a reliever but the stuff is real and he touches 100 and sits 95–99 with an elite four-seam that he fills up the zone with. His three secondaries have good shapes but he hasn’t thrown either of them for enough strikes. His CB flashes 70 with 60" of drop in the low-80s, the SL somehow gets thrown in the zone less but the shape will play, and he added a cutter in the upper-80s, low-90s to help with commanding a secondary and that hasn’t worked. Even if he’s a reliever, I see him giving you 0.5 to 1 win if he can’t get to 40 control. If he does get to 40/45 control I think he’s a 3+ win starter and will end up in that same range as McGarry.
99. Justin Foscue, 2B, Rangers
Foscue was a model darling out of Mississippi State and ranked 30th on my ’20 board. He’s been alright in Double-A with a Max EV of 108 mph, very low whiff rates and a solid approach. I like him as a 100–105 wRC+ with a 50 at second. Not a very high ceiling, likely only 1, maybe 2 wins at most.
100. Jace Avina, OF, Brewers
Avina was a 14th round pick out of high school in ’21 and has looked good in rookie ball thus far running a .294/.436/.630 line until his promotion to Low-A. He’s aggressive and doesn’t have loud power but he often hits the ball on the barrel while also putting it in the air so when he does make contact it’s almost always quality. He whiffs a ton, but the raw tools are good and he has 55-grade power with the upside for average to above skills offensively.
Drew Romo, C, Rockies
Romo was 27th on my ’20 board coming out of his Texas-based high school, and that was mostly due to the switch-hitting hit tool and elite glove. Both still hold true, but do either of them really matter when you’re running an xwOBA below .300 across your MiLB career and the catching position may become obsolete in a few years. I still think he has enough barrel accuracy to hit for 1B/2B. I think he’ll be a 10–15 HR guy. Lots of 50s in the profile.