Notes On College Draft Prospects

We’re halfway through the college season and plenty of prospects have stood out or regressed. Here are 29 players who have either garnered interest this spring or prior to this spring.

Nolan Schanuel, 1B, Florida Atlantic

Schanuel reminds me of Tyler Locklear from last year. He’s been one of the best hitters in college baseball over a three-year period, but he’s done it at a mid major. Likewise to VCU when Locklear was there, FAU is one of the best mid majors in the country and Schanuel has been a big part of that. He doesn’t swing at balls, he hammers strikes, he doesn’t swing and miss much, he walks more than he strikes out. He rarely whiffs at pitches in-zone, he hits the crap out of the ball and he’s been productive since stepping foot on campus. He was even a big recruit out of high school and could’ve signed. This is a top-5 hitter in the class. He has plus power, an average EV above 95 mph (but it’s been in a small sample). He’s hit double-digit home runs every season. He’s getting on roughly 50% of the time, he’s ran an OPS above 1.000 every year. It doesn’t get better than this from an offensive profile. He might be a 1B, he may be a LF, I don’t care, he’s a plus bat that can figure out a position some other time.

Teddy McGraw, RHP, Wake Forest

McGraw’s control has improved over time, but it’s still below-average. He was 93–97 last year, touching 98 and 99. He was reportedly sitting 95–98 in fall outings this year before he got injured and missed his entire junior season. He has a plus-slider with 12" of sweep at 84–86, and then his change in the mid-80s flashes above-average with depth and fade, but he has zero feel for it. He has relief risk, the stuff is good. I like him in the third round.

Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami

Yohandy is about as crazy as it gets in terms of offensive profiles. He’s a wildcard that makes some hideous decisions in the box and then he’ll turn on one and put it in a parked car’s trunk. It’s easy plus power. He has dozens of balls over 110 mph, and the majority are in the air where all of his damage is done. He’s got a great build with physicality but he’s gone from a SS in high school to an average 3B in college and the athleticism isn’t great. It’s a profile reliant on the offense and the insane swing and miss on top of the worrisome chase rates aren’t exactly a safe profile even with his power. He’s striking out a lot and doesn’t walk very much. If he can figure out an approach that works for him — and doesn’t result in swinging nearly 50% of the time — he could put it all together.

Max Anderson, 3B, Nebraska

Outside of a fringy batter’s eye, Anderson’s offensive profile is really good. He has juice and a 106 90th percentile EV on top of a 110+ batted ball. He’s running a 94 mph average EV, he’s never had issues with strikeouts and he seldomly whiffs at pitches in the zone. He hasn’t had a great season in college up until this spring, but the pitch-level numbers have suggested he’s always been good. You’d like to see him swing less, chase less, and therefore walk more, but it could be an area of improvement for a pro ball dev staff. He’s hit two-thirds of his batted balls over 95 mph, it’s real power and he’s not giving away contact to get to it. He’s running a 4% walk rate though. Above-average defender at third. He was one of the better hitters this summer on the Cape and he walked much more. Looking like a late day one profile that model-driven orgs will have an eye on.

Mike Boeve, 3B, Omaha

Boeve’s profile from the surface may look like Jacob Wilson’s but he’s doing a ton of damage this spring with the bat. His contact quality has taken a major step forward. He hit his first ball over 110 mph in college, he’s running a 90th percentile EV above 105 mph, and he’s still an elite hitter that rarely swings and misses. His strikeout rate has dropped into the single-digits and he walks plenty. It’s a moneyball profile, he’s not a good looking player but he’s good at everything. He’s an above-average defender that has played short in the past but he’s a 3B long-term. Looks like a model darling despite being an older junior. Plenty of tools with Boeve.

Brock Rodden, 2B, Wichita State

Rodden was drafted in the 10th round last year, but decided not to sign. He’s gotten better this year. He very rarely whiffs at pitches in the zone and he’s chasing less, swinging less, striking out less, and producing for the Shockers. He’s a decent athlete that’ll play up the middle. He’s a high contact guy with great skills and some juice/impact with the bat. He probably doesn’t go any higher this year, but he’s still an intriguing cost-effective option for clubs. He’ll turn 23-years-old before the draft.

Cam Fisher, OF, Charlotte

Fisher is on a surge this year, he was eligible last year but didn’t get scooped up. He’s still swinging and missing, but the chases are low and he makes good swing decisions leading to a ton of walks. He’s even managed to walk more than he’s struck out because of the plate discipline. His max EV has gone from a 111.9 to 112.9, his 90th percentile EV has risen to 110 mph, which is in the 99th percentile among all college hitters. It’s elite juice and high-end 70-grade power. He’s a corner outfielder, likely left.

Craig Yoho, RHP, Indiana

Yoho came to Indiana as a hitter, he’s had just one at bat in the last three seasons though. This has been his first full-season as a pitcher in college and he’s been great. Throwing enough strikes and striking out almost everybody he faces. He’s 91–95 with plenty of run on his sinker from a lowish release angle. He fills up the zone with his sinker but Indiana’s done a good job with usage and has it below 50%. His secondaries are where he gets his best strikes. His breaker is a sweeping curve — for which they call a slider — that gets 22" of sweep with heavy drop at 74–78. It’s rarely barreled up and has a 65% whiff rate. Flashes plus and I think a pro team will try to either turn it into a low-80 sweeper and give him two seperate breakers or add some sort of cutter and go cutter/sweeper instead of a sweeping slider/sweeping curve pairing. His change is filthy and has depth, lade fade, and plays off the sinker well while getting landed in the zone often. He has three average or better pitches, his change and sweeper are plus at times. It could end up being a starter profile. He’s trending up, although is he nearly 24-years-old in July.

Jaden Woods, LHP, Georgia

Woods started throwing more strikes this summer on the Cape, but he still got hit around. He’s been fastball-dominant in college and the pitch has performed down from it’s raw stuff despite decent traits because of that. He gets plenty of ride at 90–94 from the left side. It’s a plus-pitch, his secondaries aren’t great though. His slider is 78–81 with a gyro-centric shape that isn’t great, especially at a 10–12 mph difference from the fastball. He won’t throw that pitch in pro ball. He does throw it for strikes at least. Has zero feel for change, shape is whatever. Mostly two-pitch guy, relief outlook. Heater is the commodity.

Drew Bowser, 3B, Stanford

Bowser has one of the worst whiff rates in the country and there’s plenty of risk with him. He’s been highly-regarded for a few years now and was a big prospect out of high school like his teammate, Tommy Troy. Oddly enough, he’s running his worst whiff rate of his career this year but his run production has reached a career-high. He’s dropped his swing rate below 50% for the first time at Stanford and he’s made the most of his contact. His batted balls are rarely mishit, and he’s posted an average EV above 90 for the first time. Hitting the ball hard has never been an issue, he’s a massive kid with physicality, the discipline and feel to hit are lacking and make an otherwise superb profile underwhelming. He’ll need to make changes once he gets into pro ball, otherwise the chases and whiffs will catch up to him. He’s an average defender at third that will need to hit.

Cole Carrigg, OF, San Diego State

Carrigg came into the year as an interesting guy with great bat-to-ball skills and feel to hit but it’s unraveled this year and he’s still struggling to make quality contact. Running a .425 BABIP last spring helped him run a > .400 wOBA. This year it’s been the opposite, a .357 BABIP and a drop-off in production. He has a career average EV barely above 80 mph and a 90th percentile EV below 100 mph. He’s played everywhere in the field including short and center, the latter is where I see him long-term with plus speed and range. His profile is risky and a lot of it rides on improving walk rates to go with high BABIPs. Running higher BABIPs with terrible contact quality is unlikely and so he’s dropped into the middle of day two for me.

Alejandro Rosario, RHP, Miami

Rosario’s numbers have not been good this year, but he’s also been used terribly by Miami. For comparison, Rosario threw 57% fastballs this summer on the Cape to the tune of a 1.74 ERA, 11.3 K.9, and 0.9 BB/9. At Miami this spring, he’s thrown 70% fastballs, and 81% fastballs in 2–0 counts despite throwing his secondaries for 59% strikes, fastball is at 60%. He’s the type of guy that should be pitching off of his filthy slider that flashes plus all the time. It has a tight shape at 83–87 with depth and some lateral break. He throws the pitch for 65% strikes, but uses it only 1/6 of the time. His usage is something most orgs will change the second he gets into pro ball and it’s the main reason he’s struggled at Miami. His sinker is a good pitch though, the shape and velocity are above-average at 93–98 with run from a low release. It’s better at getting soft contact than whiffs but he uses it mainly in non 2-strike counts so the results haven’t been good. His CH has a good shape, though the feel is lacking, and he’s thrown a cutter as well this year that backs up. This is a starter profile even with the poor results. He has multiple pitches for strikes and just needs to be used correctly.

Alex Mooney, SS, Duke

Mooney has always been a great defender with athleticism. It was why I had a first round grade on him out of high school. He’s yet to take steps forward with the bat though. His bat speed is below-average, he’s not hitting balls with authority. He’s whiffing in-zone more than you’d like from a contact-first bat, and his plate discipline is only slightly above-average. He’s an above-average defender at short that might be better off staying at Duke for another year and trying to add strength to get production out of his stick in college. I see him as a 4th to 5th rounder now. He’s a high academic sophomore with a long track record, popular name, and the ability to play a premium position at the next level.

Carter Trice, OF, North Carolina State

Trice is a decent enough athlete that he can play multiple spots long-term at a 50+ level. He’s best at second, he’s played right, and he’s above-average in left. He could hold his own at third. He’s gained some strength since heading to NC State and even blasted a ball 112.8 mph, a career-best. His 90th percentile EV this season is higher than his previous two seasons’ max EV. But his production has dipped and his strikeout rates have jumped. He’s swinging less and chasing less because of it, but the majority of his increased takes have come on pitches in the zone. His approach is pretty average. He’s whiffing 30% of the time, and he doesn’t have enough power to overcome them. Fortunately, power at second is rare and I’m willing to bet on him improving the approach.

Case Matter, RHP, Washington

Matter has the stuff of a starter, but the control of a patient at Arkham Asylum. He’s started in the past and put up similar strikeout to walk rates then as he has this spring, but the results have been better. His stuff is easily plus and he has three secondaries with plus shapes. His slider is his best pitch with depth and some sweep at 83–87, and it’s his best pitch to land for strikes of the secondaries. His curve at 78–83 has heavy drop and some sweep with tight spin, though he doesn’t land it for strikes. It’s his best whiff pitch. His cutter hasn’t been used much but it’s tight with firm glove side break towards the end of it’s shape. He throws it hard at 89–91. All three pitches could end up as plus pitches if he can land them, the slider is already plus, the curve is above-average and the cutter shows above-average at times. His heater comes from a low launch and has some run with slight ride. It plays well with his release and velocity, he touches 97 and sits around 94 in short stints. It’s a starter arsenal profile, perhaps he needs to trust his stuff more and live in the middle of the zone. There’s plenty of upside with him.

Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon

Wilson’s best skills are all related to his feel to hit. He makes plenty of contact and gets the ball in the air and/or on a line consistently. It’s why he’s been so good at Grand Canyon and with Team USA, regardless of the competition. But he’s also managed to run a .454 BABIP this spring despite average contact quality. He rarely walks, he chases often. Will he be able to run such a high average in pro ball with wood, better defense, better field positioning, and better infields? No. He’s going to have to consistently outperform expected stats and eventually everybody regresses to the mean. He’s a great hitter. If he can add bat speed, it would get interesting. But until then it’s a risky hit-tool driven profile with no juice. We’ve seen what happened with Nick Madrigal, and while Wilson has a much more physical frame with projection, Madrigal also performed way better in college while at a better school. These types of profiles don’t have a great track record. I have him at second long-term, he could also end up in left.

LuJames Groover, 2B, North Carolina State

Groover is interesting. He’s performed better than his back of card stats suggest and he’s a good hitter with impact, but he doesn’t have a position. He’s played first, second, plenty of left and right but he’s not great at any of them. He’s an average athlete with average speed, and I think he might be a 1B long-term. He’s 6–3/210 and the profile suggest 1B, but he could stay at second as a 40 defender perhaps. He has a 113.5 max and hits the ball very hard consistently. He doesn’t always hit his hard hits in the air though and he isn’t getting the most of best contact because of it, which has been the reasoning for less slugging. He has great bat-to-ball skills and is just a plus-hitter in general. I really like the offensive skills somewhere at the beginning of day two.

Ryan Lasko, OF, Rutgers

Lasko’s production has dropped a bit this spring but the tools are all the same. He’s a solid athlete that can play CF well. He’s an above-average runner with some impact. He’s hit his hardest hit batted ball of his career this year at 111 mph, though his upper percentile for contact quality hasn’t gotten much better since his freshman year. He has above-average bat-to-ball skills and is starting to walk more than he strikes out this year. He’s making better decisions with the stick. It’s a pretty stock second round profile with enough athleticism to outperform wherever he’s drafted.

Hunter Fitz-Gerald, 1B, Old Dominion

It’s hard to not take every productive first baseman from Old Dominion seriously after recent events, and Fitz-Gerald fits the build. While he’s as productive as Pasquantino, he’s doing it in a different way. Pasquantino made great decisions with his bat and had plus bat-to-ball skills, Fitz-Gerald is more of a slugger that is overly aggressive and swings at plenty of bad pitches because of it. But he’s doing so much damage on his contact that it’s working out for him. He has 70-grade raw power, and hit a ball 117 mph on YakkerTech. The majority of his whiffs are out of the zone, and he doesn’t swing through many pitches in the zone. Which suggests his bat-to-ball skills are solid and his whiffs are due to the approach. You’d like to see him walk more but he has juice. The profile is very similar to Ivan Melendez in his first year at Texas. He’s a transfer from a Florida JC.

Sam Mongelli, 2B, Sacred Heart

Mongelli has always been a pretty stock hitter from a small cold weather school but he’s taken a big step forward this year. He’s been the starting SS for Sacred Heart, but his glove skills aren’t great. He has an average arm and looks to be a 2B long-term. His offensive skills are where he’s intriguing now. He rarely chases, though this hasn’t lead to him walking much this year, something I think will change. It’s average bat speed, but he can get some power on balls to his pull side. He doesn’t whiff often, has solid bat-to-ball skills. Has a max of 107, running one of the highest averages in college baseball this year. It’s a decent day three profile. Offensive production from a 2B in pro ball is big.

Christian Knapczyk, SS, Louisville

Knapczyk is a dollar store Jacob Wilson. He’s a slightly better athlete and defender with really good bat-to-ball skills and a solid batter’s eye. He has zero power, like 30-grade maybe. He has a higher on-base than slug, and he’s yet to finish a season with a 90th percentile EV above 100 mph. His max is just 103 mph, and he’s peaked at four home runs in a season at Louisville. He’s a plus-defender and I think some team will hope he gains bat speed in pro ball and turns into a legit guy. Not a lot of upside here.

Jake Gelof, 3B, Virginia

I’d take Jake’s brother over him, but that’s not saying much. Both of them look like potential big leaguers. Jake wasn’t great as a freshman, but he blew up over the summer and it carried over into his sophomore year. Now, as a junior, he’s one of the best bats in college baseball. His 90th percentile has shot up from his freshman year, his production amongst the best in the country, and he’s whiffing at just 12% of pitches in the zone. He does chase a bit, but it’s probably the only slight knock on an otherwise legit profile. He has a great approach and can do damage on pitches he’s not sitting on. Complete hitter. Not a good defender, but he might be able to stay at third long-term. Probably a 45 at the spot.

Trace Willhoite, 3B, Lipscomb

Has jumped around defensively, profile is driven by his offensive skills. Hammers the ball and doesn’t make bad decisions. Very smart and patient in the box, knows his strengths and plays to them. Sees pitches, takes walks, has whiffed a lot over his year despite rarely swinging at poor pitches. His bat-to-ball skills are lacking and his hit tool is around average because of the whiff concerns. He’d be a senior sign, nearly 23-years-old this summer. Has a 113 max EV and 107 90th percentile EV. Has hit half of his batted balls hard, most in the air. Had 17 home runs last year, has double-digit this year. 60-grade juice, hit tool should be good enough.

Ben Williamson, 3B, William & Mary

Plus defender at third, can also move over to short and be a part-time defender there if necessary but he’s only a 45 there. He’s made big strides this year in terms of contact quality while not losing any of his bat-to-ball skills. He’s running career high average, 90th percentile, and max EVs with a career-best wOBA and OPS. He doesn’t whiff, especially in the zone, and while he does chase at times, he takes his walks and sees pitches. He doesn’t have much lift juice, it’s mostly gap-to-gap with some pull side power. He’s hit numerous balls over 110 mph. He’s a 22-year-old senior, not an old one. He’s performed this spring against good arms, though he has whiffed much more. It’s a day 2 profile, likely between the 6th and 8th round for well below slot. Last year he was a defense-first non-prospect with below-average bat speed, this year he’s offense-first with a ton of quality contact.

Ryan Galanie, 3B, Wofford

Galanie is about to turn 23-years-old, but he’s having a career-best year for the Terriers and likewise to his teammates, he’s running around the basepath. He’s only a 55 runner but with the system they run everybody steals bags. He’s a solid defender at third that’s moved around. He’s walking more than he’s striking out and has dropped his chase rate to a career-low 15% while limiting the in-zone whiffs and hitting the ball hard when it’s put in play. He has a 110 max and a career average EV of 92 mph. His swing is stiff, it’s short and flat. He sets up in a squatty stance. His bat can pull off from its path and he doesn’t get full backspin on his batted balls, but he’s been productive against his small school competition and he’s been good in summer leagues over the years. I like him as a late day two senior sign.

Jared Thomas, C, Loyola Marymount

Thomas has some of the best bat-to-ball in the class and rarely swings and misses in the zone. He doesn’t swing at the best pitches though and it’s caused him to chase a ton of pitches out of the zone leading to almost all of his whiffs. He walks more than he strikes out and is having a career-year after transferring to Loyola Marymount from Miami two years ago. He has some impact with the bat, 90th percentile EV is around 102 mph and he has a max of 105. He’s an average receiver. You’re basically betting on him gaining some bat speed and turning into a decent hitter while still having the plus plus bat-to-ball. Power is below-average.

Charlie Pagliarini, 3B, Fairfield

Pagliarini is a rough defender and stiff athlete, probably plays first or left long-term but the bat deserves a shot in pro ball. He can flat out hit. He’s got a great eye, doesn’t chase, and stays discipline. He gets on a lot, takes a lot of walks. Great approach. He’s hit just 40 balls on TrackMan over the last two seasons, but they’ve been hit on average at 93.3 mph with a 108.3 90th percentile EV and 113.3 max. It’s quality contact, and he mostly lifts his hard hits for XBHs. It’s a solid late-round profile that will save you money.

Corey Collins, C, Georgia

Collins was a highly-regarded prospect out of high school with juice and physicality. He doesn’t have a position and shuffles around. He had a great freshman year and has shown flashes at times but the overall production has never been special, especially relative to other guys without positions. He has above-average raw power and average game power. He has a good batter’s eye but swings and misses a good bit. He’s a below-average hitter, looking like a profile meant for the middle of day two.